ArborGen Holdings (NZX: ARB)

Currency in NZD

Last close As at 22/09/2023

NZD0.18

−0.01 (−5.26%)

Market capitalisation

NZD96m

ArborGen Holdings is a New Zealand-listed investment company and is the world’s largest integrated developer, commercial manufacturer and supplier of advanced forestry seedlings with operations in the United States and Brazil.

Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, the economic growth outlook in each of its core countries, the United States and Brazil, was either good or improving, according to OECD data. At this point the primary end-markets served by ArborGen’s plantation forestry customer base were in a positive cyclical phase.

Latest Insights

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Industrials | Outlook

ArborGen Holdings — Green shoots appear in the spring

Industrials | Update

ArborGen Holdings — Shifting focus to US South and Brazil

Industrials | Update

ArborGen Holdings — Favourable balance of risk

Sector

Industrials

Equity Analyst

Andy Murphy

Andy Murphy

Director, Financials & Industrials

Key Management

  • Alex Brown

    CFO

  • Dave Knott, Jr

    Chairman

  • Justin Birch

    President and CEO

  • Sharon Ludher-Chandra

    Business Development Executive

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

N/A

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (10.0) (10.0) (23.4)
Relative (6.7) (6.9) (20.2)
52 week high/low 0.2/0.2

Financials

We believe ArborGen Holdings is in prime position, not only to address increasing demands from clients for its seedlings, but also for its ongoing investment in genetic improvement to continue to drive the switch to sales of higher-value, higher-margin seedlings to all its key markets. While this process plays out, underlying EBIT is set to increase five-fold in the next two years as gross margins return to and then exceed historical levels. We determine a value of NZ$0.49/share, implying attractive upside.

Y/E Mar Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 47.6 10.1 1.0 1.1 9.8 5.0
2023A 56.1 9.2 0.3 (0.6) N/A 24.7
2024E 68.0 14.4 5.8 0.8 13.5 4.9
2025E 74.7 17.1 8.5 1.2 9.0 5.8

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