Alphamin Resources (TSXV: AFM)

Last close As at 12/07/2024

CAD1.17

0.02 (1.74%)

Market capitalisation

CAD1,494m

Alphamin owns (84.14%) and operates the Bisie tin mine at Mpama North in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo with a grade of c 4.5% tin (the world’s highest). Accounting for c 4% of mined supply, it is the second largest tin mine in the world outside China and Indonesia.

Including production from Mpama South from Q224, we calculate a value for Alphamin of US$1.06 (or C$1.44), based on the dividends that can be generated from its existing resources. However, this increases to as much as US$1.76 (C$2.36) in the event that the company’s exploration programme continues to extend its mines’ lives indefinitely. In the meantime, its peers imply a share price for Alphamin of C$2.89/share.

Latest Insights

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Metals & Mining | Initiation

Alphamin Resources — Still leading the pack

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Mpama South continues the charge

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Presenting the bull case

Metals & Mining | Update

Alphamin Resources — Underlying results exceed prior forecasts

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Charles Needham

    Non-executive Chairman

  • Eoin O'Driscoll

    CFO

  • Maritz Smith

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

1.9

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 9.4 (1.7) 11.4
Relative 6.2 (3.6) (1.8)
52 week high/low C$1.2/C$0.8

Financials

Alphamin offers rare exposure to a metal that both Rio Tinto and MIT regard as the most likely to benefit from the energy transition. The company successfully ramped up its Mpama North mine at Bisie in the Democratic Republic of the Congo just as the tin price was enjoying one of its biggest bull markets in decades, allowing it to pay off debt and start making distributions to shareholders. Now, in the midst of a second similar squeeze, it has brought a second mine, Mpama South, into production, which will expand group tin output by c 50% to c 20,000tpa.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 391.1 222.2 188.0 7.86 10.9 5.8
2023A 288.5 135.5 94.7 3.68 23.2 549.0
2024E 477.7 241.5 199.3 9.14 9.4 4.9
2025E N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Research

Update

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Roaring back

Update

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Results confirm long-term potential

Initiation

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — Alpha tin actually

QuickView

Metals & Mining

Alphamin Resources — New tin producer generating cash flow

Thematics

thematic

Metals & Mining

Shades of the 1970s

thematic

Metals & Mining

Critical minerals: The investment vacuum

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thematic

Metals & Mining

Lithium’s adolescence

thematic

Metals & Mining

Lepidico: Offer closes, oversubscribed

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