4imprint Group (LSE: FOUR)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 20/09/2023

GBP50.30

40.00 (0.80%)

Market capitalisation

GBP1,406m

4imprint is the leading direct marketer of promotional products in the United States, Canada, the UK and Ireland. In FY22, 98% of revenues were generated in the United States and Canada.

The US promotional products distribution market is highly fragmented and PPAI estimated its 2022 value at over US$25bn, up 13% on the year, well ahead of the GDP increase of 2.9%. Q123 growth moderated to +3.3%, with a pick up in Q2 to +5.6%, which will include some price inflation, so underlying volume growth is still likely limited. There are still questions about confidence in the US corporate sector, but the utility of promotional products is high and sector prospects remain positive.

Latest Insights

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TMT | Update

4imprint Group — Record H123 customer demand

TMT | Flash note

4imprint Group — Very strong demand

Sector

TMT

Equity Analyst

Fiona Orford-Williams

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

Key Management

  • David Seekings

    FD

  • Kevin Lyons-Tarr

    CEO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

72.3

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 4.3 (1.6) 37.2
Relative (1.6) (3.3) 29.1
52 week high/low 5350.0p/3280.0p

Financials

4imprint’s interim results reflected the narrative of the previous week’s trading update, being strong underlying demand, an uptick in gross margin as the supply chain bottlenecks ease and strong returns on each dollar of marketing spend. Having upgraded following the update, we have now ‘tidied up’ our modelling for FY23 and FY24. With the buy-in of the legacy defined benefit pension and the accelerated recovery contributions, plus payment of the special dividend, we expect 4imprint to end FY23 with net cash of around $72m. This gives plenty of firepower to support continued growth, helped by a likely project in FY24 to extend the Oshkosh distribution centre. The group is clearly outperforming its market and building (profitable) share.

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 787.3 35.7 30.2 80.3 79.6 78.6
2022A 1140.3 108.4 103.7 285.0 22.4 17.7
2023E 1320.0 128.8 126.0 335.3 19.1 13.6
2024E 1450.0 146.9 141.0 379.5 16.8 12.5

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