Still bearish

Published on 22 June 2011

We continue to believe that benchmark light oil prices will trend downward over the balance of the year. The OECD economic backdrop is clearly deteriorating partly under the weight of high oil prices, China and other developing countries are increasingly battling inflation and Saudi output is being stepped up. In our view, the oil supply/demand balance will be nothing like as tight in Q3 and Q4 as currently assumed by the bullish consensus.

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