Seismic reflections : Looking vulnerable

Published on 15 April 2011

Crude oil markets are vulnerable to a reversal of the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment that has prevailed since the third quarter of 2010. We believe that in the coming months supply fears could well dissipate while evidence of the impact of historically high prices on world economic activity grows. Rather than supply deficits in 2011/12 a swing to surplus is looking a possibility. Prices for benchmark light crudes, we believe, are potentially vulnerable by $30/barrel or more over the next six months.

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