Macro Outlook – Rapidly weakening market backdrop

Published on 11 August 2011

We believe the near-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish and see little scope for a renewed upsurge in 2012. A raft of economic statistics in the US and Europe combined with anti-inflation measures in the BRICS and rising OPEC production are all pointing to an underling loosening of the market over the balance of 2011. Financial deleveraging in the OECD probably implies significantly weaker medium-term oil demand than assumed by the bulls.

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