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Claranova’s Q223 revenue update confirmed its PlanetArt division has returned to underlying growth, helping the group to report organic constant currency (cc) growth for the first time since Q321. The company noted that to strengthen its customer base it had increased marketing spend in both PlanetArt and Avanquest; while this would weigh on H1 profitability, it should have a positive impact on H2 profitability. Partly due to the inflationary environment, we have trimmed our EBITDA forecasts for FY23 and FY24.
Claranova |
Resumption of underlying growth |
Q223 revenue update |
Software and comp services |
14 February 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analyst
Claranova is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
Claranova’s Q223 revenue update confirmed its PlanetArt division has returned to underlying growth, helping the group to report organic constant currency (cc) growth for the first time since Q321. The company noted that to strengthen its customer base it had increased marketing spend in both PlanetArt and Avanquest; while this would weigh on H1 profitability, it should have a positive impact on H2 profitability. Partly due to the inflationary environment, we have trimmed our EBITDA forecasts for FY23 and FY24.
Year end |
Revenue |
EBITDA* |
PBT** |
Diluted EPS** |
DPS |
P/E |
06/21 |
470.6 |
32.9 |
24.2 |
0.37 |
0.0 |
6.1 |
06/22 |
473.7 |
25.5 |
7.2 |
0.11 |
0.0 |
21.5 |
06/23e |
526.5 |
34.4 |
15.5 |
0.24 |
0.0 |
9.7 |
06/24e |
552.3 |
39.5 |
20.7 |
0.32 |
0.0 |
7.2 |
Note: *Pre-IFRS 16. **PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Signs of good progress for PlanetArt
In Q223, on a cc organic basis, PlanetArt grew revenue by 3% yoy, Avanquest saw a 2% decline and myDevices reported flat revenue, resulting in group revenue growth of 2%. Adding in the effect of currency and Avanquest acquisitions, the group reported year-on-year revenue growth of 13%. PlanetArt has been working hard to develop alternative customer acquisition channels since the introduction of Apple’s privacy policy in April 2021 (Q421) and in Q223 generated the first quarter of underlying growth since Q321, which in turn has resulted in the first quarter of underlying growth for the group since Q321.
Minor changes to forecasts
We have revised our revenue forecasts to reflect slightly better PlanetArt growth and slightly lower growth for Avanquest and myDevices. We have marginally reduced our EBITDA forecasts to reflect the divisional profit mix and overall cost inflation. Claranova will report full H123 results on 29 March.
Valuation: Sustained profitable growth is key
Reflecting the different business models for each division, we continue to use a sum-of-the-parts approach to valuation. Using EV/sales multiples that reflect our views on divisional growth and profitability and are conservative compared to the peer group averages, we maintain our €7.39 per share valuation. In our view, consistent growth in revenues and margins towards Claranova’s FY24 targets will be fundamental to reducing the discount to peers. In the near term, sustained growth in PlanetArt (while balancing profitability) will be the key trigger.
Q223 revenue update
The table below summarises Claranova’s divisional performance for Q223 and H123. On a cc organic basis, the group grew revenue by 2% y-o-y in Q223 and 1% in H123.
Exhibit 1: Divisional revenue performance |
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Source: Claranova |
PlanetArt returns to organic growth in Q223
For the first time since Q321, PlanetArt generated cc organic revenue growth, at 3% in Q223 up from negative 3% in Q123. This is the first quarter of underlying growth since Apple introduced its App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy in April 2021. Since then, management has been trialling new methods of customer acquisition and in Q223, managed to combine various marketing approaches allowing it to win new customers, while stabilising the cost of acquisition. The division’s focus is now on scaling this approach. The last quarter of the calendar year is always the strongest for PlanetArt, covering Thanksgiving and Christmas, with particular strength in US web-based offerings, which are less affected by the ATT changes. The division also continues to invest in R&D, using artificial intelligence to make its products more accessible. For example, it has integrated ChatGPT technology into its Ink Cards application to help users write messages in their greeting cards.
Avanquest: stable performance for H123
On a cc basis, the division grew 4% y-o-y in Q223. Excluding the PDF Forge and Scanner App acquisitions (c €1.6m contribution), it declined 2% y-o-y as the business saw slightly lower advertising revenue rates for its freemium products. Organic cc revenue growth was 1% for H123. Throughout H1, the division ramped up its marketing investments to expand its SaaS customer base. PDF Forge integration is progressing well.
myDevices sees growth in ARR
The division saw flat revenues on a cc basis in Q223, with 13% growth for H123. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) stood at €2.6m at the end of H123, up 30% y-o-y in cc and up from €2.4m at the end of FY22. The number of distributors increased to 190 from 143 a year ago.
Changes to estimates
We have revised our revenue forecasts to reflect the stronger than expected performance in PlanetArt, partially offset by slightly lower revenues in Avanquest and myDevices. Reflecting the current inflationary environment, we have trimmed our EBITDA forecasts for FY23 and FY24.
Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts |
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Source: Edison Investment Research |
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
€'m |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
||
30-June |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
130.2 |
161.5 |
262.3 |
409.1 |
470.6 |
473.7 |
526.5 |
552.3 |
EBITDA |
|
|
(5.0) |
3.9 |
16.0 |
20.6 |
36.5 |
28.3 |
38.0 |
43.2 |
Company adjusted EBITDA |
|
|
(5.0) |
3.9 |
16.0 |
17.4 |
32.9 |
25.5 |
34.4 |
39.5 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
(5.8) |
3.4 |
15.5 |
15.8 |
31.0 |
23.7 |
33.0 |
38.2 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.5) |
(2.4) |
(3.1) |
(3.8) |
(4.5) |
(4.7) |
||
Exceptionals |
0.4 |
(2.4) |
(2.9) |
(5.6) |
(4.4) |
(0.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(4.8) |
(7.1) |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
(10.1) |
(6.1) |
11.4 |
7.8 |
23.5 |
18.0 |
28.5 |
33.5 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.9) |
(0.3) |
(3.5) |
(4.5) |
(6.8) |
(16.5) |
(17.5) |
(17.5) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(45.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(5.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(6.6) |
3.1 |
12.0 |
11.3 |
24.2 |
7.2 |
15.5 |
20.7 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(11.0) |
(6.4) |
(37.7) |
3.3 |
16.7 |
(4.2) |
11.0 |
16.0 |
Reported tax |
(0.4) |
(1.8) |
(3.7) |
(2.1) |
(3.5) |
(5.7) |
(2.5) |
(3.7) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(7.0) |
2.4 |
9.2 |
8.7 |
18.6 |
5.5 |
11.9 |
15.9 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(11.4) |
(8.2) |
(41.4) |
1.2 |
13.2 |
(10.0) |
8.5 |
12.3 |
||
Minority interests |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
(0.7) |
(3.7) |
(0.5) |
(0.0) |
(0.1) |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(6.7) |
2.6 |
9.8 |
8.0 |
14.9 |
5.0 |
11.9 |
15.8 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(11.0) |
(7.9) |
(40.8) |
0.5 |
9.5 |
(10.5) |
8.4 |
12.2 |
||
Basic ave. number of shares outstanding (m) |
38 |
39 |
39 |
39 |
39 |
43 |
46 |
46 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (€) |
|
|
(0.18) |
0.07 |
0.25 |
0.20 |
0.38 |
0.12 |
0.26 |
0.35 |
EPS - diluted normalised (€) |
|
|
(0.18) |
0.06 |
0.25 |
0.20 |
0.37 |
0.11 |
0.24 |
0.32 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
(0.29) |
(0.20) |
(1.04) |
0.01 |
0.24 |
(0.25) |
0.18 |
0.27 |
Dividend (€) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
10.9 |
24.0 |
62.4 |
56.0 |
15.0 |
0.7 |
11.2 |
4.9 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-3.8 |
2.4 |
6.1 |
5.0 |
7.7 |
6.0 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
||
Company adjusted EBITDA margin (%) |
-3.8 |
2.4 |
6.1 |
4.3 |
7.0 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
7.2 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
-4.4 |
2.1 |
5.9 |
3.9 |
6.6 |
5.0 |
6.3 |
6.9 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2.0 |
1.3 |
75.1 |
93.7 |
96.6 |
123.3 |
147.9 |
143.8 |
Intangible Assets |
0.9 |
0.5 |
69.9 |
70.5 |
77.5 |
96.6 |
120.6 |
115.9 |
||
Tangible Assets |
0.3 |
0.2 |
1.4 |
15.7 |
12.2 |
18.2 |
18.8 |
19.4 |
||
Investments & other |
0.7 |
0.6 |
3.8 |
7.5 |
6.9 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
28.1 |
79.1 |
100.9 |
116.3 |
128.4 |
146.7 |
162.4 |
184.7 |
Stocks |
3.7 |
3.7 |
4.8 |
14.4 |
16.1 |
22.0 |
24.5 |
25.7 |
||
Debtors |
4.3 |
4.9 |
11.6 |
9.9 |
9.2 |
8.3 |
9.2 |
9.7 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
17.1 |
65.7 |
75.4 |
82.8 |
90.4 |
100.3 |
112.6 |
133.3 |
||
Other |
2.9 |
4.8 |
9.1 |
9.2 |
12.7 |
16.1 |
16.1 |
16.1 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(28.1) |
(37.2) |
(60.5) |
(74.6) |
(76.7) |
(106.0) |
(113.7) |
(117.3) |
Creditors |
(26.6) |
(35.4) |
(54.8) |
(64.3) |
(63.8) |
(78.1) |
(85.8) |
(89.4) |
||
Tax and social security |
(0.3) |
(1.7) |
(3.0) |
(1.2) |
(2.0) |
(1.9) |
(1.9) |
(1.9) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(1.1) |
(0.1) |
(2.7) |
(6.1) |
(7.7) |
(22.6) |
(22.6) |
(22.6) |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(3.0) |
(3.2) |
(3.4) |
(3.4) |
(3.4) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(0.7) |
(29.0) |
(52.0) |
(73.1) |
(66.1) |
(162.3) |
(191.3) |
(200.3) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
(28.1) |
(49.1) |
(62.8) |
(57.4) |
(148.9) |
(177.9) |
(186.9) |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(0.7) |
(0.9) |
(2.9) |
(10.3) |
(8.7) |
(13.4) |
(13.4) |
(13.4) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
1.3 |
14.2 |
63.6 |
62.3 |
82.2 |
1.7 |
5.4 |
11.0 |
Minority interests |
(0.1) |
(1.8) |
(11.0) |
(11.7) |
(16.2) |
(3.3) |
1.5 |
8.1 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
1.2 |
12.5 |
52.6 |
50.6 |
66.0 |
(1.6) |
6.8 |
19.0 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
(5.0) |
3.9 |
16.0 |
20.6 |
36.5 |
28.3 |
38.0 |
43.2 |
||
Working capital |
6.8 |
7.9 |
(4.1) |
22.5 |
(3.1) |
3.2 |
4.3 |
2.0 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(2.2) |
(5.7) |
(5.2) |
(6.3) |
(8.9) |
(4.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
(0.0) |
(1.2) |
(3.8) |
(6.8) |
(5.1) |
(9.4) |
(2.5) |
(3.7) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(0.4) |
5.0 |
3.0 |
30.0 |
19.4 |
17.9 |
39.8 |
41.5 |
Capex |
(0.2) |
(0.1) |
(2.5) |
(1.2) |
(3.8) |
(2.2) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
3.6 |
14.2 |
(13.3) |
(31.9) |
(3.8) |
(73.3) |
(33.3) |
(6.7) |
||
Net interest |
(0.0) |
(0.3) |
0.0 |
(0.5) |
(0.7) |
(1.7) |
(8.5) |
(8.5) |
||
Equity financing |
1.9 |
2.0 |
(1.4) |
0.0 |
2.4 |
13.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.1 |
(0.6) |
0.0 |
0.4 |
(2.6) |
1.9 |
(3.6) |
(3.6) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
5.0 |
20.1 |
(14.2) |
(3.2) |
11.0 |
(44.1) |
(7.6) |
20.7 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(9.8) |
(16.0) |
(37.5) |
(23.6) |
(13.9) |
(25.3) |
71.2 |
87.9 |
FX |
(0.6) |
0.4 |
0.3 |
(0.8) |
1.8 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
1.8 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
(5.7) |
(1.3) |
(54.5) |
(9.0) |
(9.0) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(16.0) |
(37.5) |
(23.6) |
(13.9) |
(25.3) |
71.2 |
87.9 |
76.2 |
Source: Claranova, Edison Investment Research
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