Orege — UK commercial delays affect 2019 sales

Orège (EU: OREGE)

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Research: Industrials

Orege — UK commercial delays affect 2019 sales

Following H1 results highlighting delays in the UK commercial development, we have reduced our forecasts to reflect our assumption of a one-year delay in the revenue ramp-up for Orège. An acceleration of revenue growth would be the main catalyst for a potential rerating.

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Industrials

Orège

UK commercial delays affect 2019 sales

H1 results

General industrials

11 October 2019

Price

€0.88

Market cap

€44m

Net debt (€m) FY19e

15.6

Shares in issue

50.6m

Free float

16.4%

Code

ORÈGE

Primary exchange

Euronext

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(15.6)

(28.9)

(71.9)

Rel (local)

(15.2)

(29.0)

(73.3)

52-week high/low

€3.35

€0.65

Business description

Founded in 2006 and listed on Euronext in 2013, Orège is a clean-tech company that has developed an innovative, patented technology (solid, liquid, gas) to significantly reduce sludge treatment costs and improve environmental sustainability of the treatment process. It has commercial operations in France, the UK, the US and Germany and is a partner of Itochu Machine-Technos Corp in Japan.

Next events

FY results

April 2020

Analyst

Dario Carradori

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Orège is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Following H1 results highlighting delays in the UK commercial development, we have reduced our forecasts to reflect our assumption of a one-year delay in the revenue ramp-up for Orège. An acceleration of revenue growth would be the main catalyst for a potential rerating.

Year end

Revenues
(€m)

EBITDA
(€m)

EBIT
(€m)

Net income
(€m)

EV/sales
(x)

12/17

0.4

(10.1)

(11.5)

(13.6)

128.2

12/18

2.3

(7.7)

(8.5)

(10.9)

26.9

12/19e

3.0

(7.6)

(8.4)

(10.8)

29.6

12/20e

6.0

(6.4)

(7.2)

(8.3)

14.8

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

UK commercial delays affect 2019 revenues

At its H1 results Orège reported €0.1m revenues (vs €0.9m in H118) and warned that uncertainties around Brexit and the fact that several UK water utilities have seen their five-year plans delayed by the regulator, Ofwat, will result in delays to the negotiations for the sale of new solid, liquid, gas (SLG) units, with a larger than earlier expected impact on 2019 revenues. Orège estimates a €3m turnover for the contracts under execution, which the company expects to book mostly in Q419. Earlier in the summer, Orège announced that €39.6m were subscribed in its rights issue (€33.9m through the conversion of a receivable by Eren Industries and €5.7m in cash), which will be used to strengthen its balance sheet and accelerate commercial development in strategic growth countries (the US, UK, Germany and Japan) and the development of new waste to energy solutions.

Revenue ramp-up delayed by one year

We cut our forecasts to reflect the reduced 2019 outlook provided by the company. As a result of the commercial delays in the UK, a key market for Orège, and as 2019 revenues are likely to be around half of what we previously expected, we have delayed the revenue ramp up we include in our forecasts by one year. We assume an increased focus on cost-cutting through a slower increase in costs in FY19 to FY21 and now expect EBITDA to roughly break even in FY22 (vs FY21 previously) and positive cash flow in FY23 (vs FY22 before). In addition to the earnings reductions, we have updated our forecasts to reflect the increase in the number of shares following the July capital increase. We estimate the capital increase will drastically reduce net debt to €15.6m at end FY19 (vs our previous forecast of €55.4m). We forecast available liquidity of c €5m at the end of 2019.

Valuation: Growth delivery is key catalyst for rerating

For the share price to recover after the recent decline, we believe delivering growth is required as a catalyst. Based on our forecasts and a 12.5% WACC (consistent with the rate we use for companies at a similar stage of development), the current share price implies five years of growth in line with our assumptions but only inflationary growth thereafter. Mature water equipment companies trade on 2x EV/sales for FY19. Based on the current share price and our forecasts, Orège trades on around the same multiple in FY23.

UK commercial delays impact 2019 revenues

At its H1 results Orège:

Reported €0.1m revenues (vs €0.9m in H118), EBIT loss of €4.9m (vs a loss of €4.4m in H118) and a net loss of €6.5m (vs €5.5m in H118).

Warned that uncertainties around Brexit and that several UK water utilities have seen their five-year plans delayed by the regulator, Ofwat, will result in delays to the negotiations for the sale of new SLG units, with a larger than expected impact on revenues for 2019. Orège remains confident about the potential of the UK market and continues negotiations with several UK water utilities.

Said that one UK water utility has not retained Orège’s proposal for a lorry-carried thickening solution.

Said it estimates a €3m turnover for the nine contracts under execution in other five countries, which the company expects to book mostly in Q419. Orège expects to deploy its first projects in Japan, Spain and Italy in H2.

€39.6m capital increase completed in July

In July 2019 Orège announced the results of its rights issue, with €39.6m shares subscribed (€33.9m through the conversion of a receivable by Eren Industries and €5.7m in cash), which will be used to strengthen its balance sheet and accelerate commercial development. In particular, Orège said the funds will be used to finance commercial development in strategic growth countries (the US, UK, Germany and Japan) and the development of new waste to energy solutions.

News of a capital increase was expected as there was a legal requirement to recapitalise the company before the end of 2019. As a result of the capital raise, Eren Industries increased its stake in Orège to 79.5% (from 69% before).

Exhibit 1: New shareholding structure post capital raise (% of capital)

Source: Company data

The capital increase will drastically reduce net debt to €15.6m (Edison estimate) at the end of FY19, which compares to our previous forecast of €55.4m. The €5.7m cash raised adds to the undrawn shareholder current account facility of €3.3m at 30 June 2019. We expect the c €9m total available liquidity in July 2019 to reduce to c €5m at the end of 2019.

Forecasts reduced

We have cut our forecasts for 2019 to reflect the new outlook provided by the company. As a result of the commercial delays in the UK, a key market for Orège, and as 2019 revenues are likely to be around half of what we previously expected, we have delayed the significant revenue ramp up we include in our forecasts by one year. We assume increased focus on cost cutting, resulting in a slower increase in costs in FY19 to FY21, which, however, have little impact on the bottom line when compared to the effect of reduced revenues. We now expect EBITDA to roughly break even in FY22 (vs FY21 previously) and positive cash flow in FY23 (vs FY22 before).

In addition to the revenue and earnings reductions, we have updated our forecasts to reflect the increase in the number of shares following the recent capital increase. We reduce financial expenses significantly to reflect the smaller debt burden.

Exhibit 2: Forecast changes

€000s

FY18

FY19e

FY20e

Revenues

NEW

2,260

3,005

6,027

OLD

2,260

6,281

11,007

% change

0%

-52%

-45%

EBITDA

NEW

-7,749

-7,630

-6,442

OLD

-7,749

-5,943

-3,802

% change

0%

28%

69%

EBIT

NEW

-8,537

-8,430

-7,242

OLD

-8,537

-6,743

-4,602

% change

0%

25%

57%

Net Income

NEW

-10,915

-10,796

-8,335

OLD

-10,915

-9,849

-8,477

% change

0%

10%

-2%

Net debt

NEW

44,449

15,620

23,875

OLD

44,382

55,350

65,219

% change

0%

-72%

-63%

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

Growth delivery is key catalyst for potential rerating

As Orège is at an early stage of commercial development there is significant uncertainty over its valuation, which is reflected in the recent share price volatility. For the share price to recover, we believe delivering growth is required as a catalyst. Based on our current forecasts and a 12.5% WACC (consistent with the rate we use for companies at a similar stage of development), the current share price implies five years of growth in line with our assumptions (€58m revenues in FY24) but only inflationary growth thereafter. Mature water equipment companies trade on 2x EV/sales for FY19. Based on the current share price and our forecasts, Orège trades on around the same multiple in FY23.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

Accounts: IFRS, Yr end: December, EUR: Thousands

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Income statement

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

703

387

2,260

3,005

6,027

Cost of sales

(1,568)

(597)

(600)

(1,114)

(2,849)

Gross profit

(865)

(210)

1,660

1,891

3,178

SG&A (expenses)

(14,103)

(9,858)

(9,409)

(9,521)

(9,620)

Depreciation and amortisation

(2,241)

(1,417)

(788)

(800)

(800)

Reported EBIT

(17,209)

(11,485)

(8,537)

(8,430)

(7,242)

Finance income/(expense)

(822)

(1,739)

(2,378)

(2,366)

(1,093)

Other income/(expense)

168

(411)

0

0

0

Exceptionals and adjustments

0

0

0

0

0

Reported PBT

(17,864)

(13,635)

(10,915)

(10,796)

(8,335)

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

114

0

0

0

0

Reported net income

(17,750)

(13,635)

(10,915)

(10,796)

(8,335)

Basic average number of shares, m

18.7

18.7

18.7

34.6

50.6

Basic EPS

(0.95)

(0.73)

(0.58)

(0.31)

(0.16)

DPS

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Adjusted EBITDA

(14,968)

(10,068)

(7,749)

(7,630)

(6,442)

Adjusted EBIT

(17,209)

(11,485)

(8,537)

(8,430)

(7,242)

Adjusted PBT

(17,864)

(13,635)

(10,915)

(10,796)

(8,335)

Adjusted EPS, €/sh

(0.95)

(0.73)

(0.58)

(0.31)

(0.16)

Adjusted diluted EPS, €/sh

(0.95)

(0.73)

(0.58)

(0.31)

(0.24)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance sheet

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

1,455

987

719

719

719

Intangible assets

242

190

156

156

156

Other non-current assets

1,857

2,779

3,113

3,113

3,113

Total non-current assets

3,554

3,956

3,987

3,987

3,987

Cash and equivalents

950

506

321

5,991

5,991

Inventories

1,860

1,432

1,226

1,593

2,852

Trade and other receivables

164

467

502

801

1,606

Other current assets

1,212

713

808

808

808

Total current assets

4,186

3,118

2,857

9,193

11,258

Non-current loans and borrowings

20,672

33,810

44,703

21,545

29,800

Other non-current liabilities

149

143

66

66

66

Total non-current liabilities

20,821

33,953

44,769

21,610

29,865

Trade and other payables

1,416

888

1,385

1,286

2,631

Current loans and borrowings

265

323

272

272

272

Other current liabilities

1,658

1,495

1,087

1,087

1,087

Total current liabilities

3,339

2,706

2,745

2,645

3,991

Equity attributable to company

(16,421)

(29,584)

(40,670)

(11,076)

(18,611)

Non-controlling interest

0

0

0

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cashflow statement

 

 

 

 

 

Profit for the year

(17,750)

(13,520)

(10,915)

(10,796)

(8,335)

Taxation expenses

(114)

0

0

0

0

Profit before tax

(17,864)

(13,520)

(10,915)

(10,796)

(8,335)

Net finance expenses

822

1,739

2,378

2,366

1,093

EBIT

(17,041)

(11,781)

(8,537)

(8,430)

(7,242)

Depreciation and amortisation

5,409

1,327

372

800

800

Share based payments

0

0

0

0

0

Other adjustments

2,243

(692)

(796)

800

800

Movements in working capital

(791)

(341)

160

(765)

(720)

Cash from operations (CFO)

(10,180)

(11,487)

(8,801)

(7,596)

(6,362)

Capex

(2,168)

(870)

93

(800)

(800)

Acquisitions & disposals net

4

3

0

0

0

Other investing activities

0

0

0

0

0

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

(2,164)

(868)

93

(800)

(800)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

23

(72)

48

39,590

0

Movements in debt

12,487

11,480

8,518

(28,828)

8,255

Dividends paid

0

0

0

0

0

Other financing activities

(164)

(23)

(40)

(2,366)

(1,093)

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

12,346

11,385

8,526

8,396

7,162

Currency translation differences and other

(1)

525

10

0

0

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

0

(444)

(171)

0

0

Cash and equivalents at end of period

950

506

321

5,991

5,991

Net (debt) cash

(19,560)

(33,201)

(44,449)

(15,620)

(23,875)

Movement in net (debt) cash over period

(19,560)

(13,641)

(11,248)

28,828

(8,255)

Source: Orège, Edison Investment Research


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This report has been commissioned by Orege and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Orege. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Orege and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Orege. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Daldrup & Soehne — Reshaping the business

Daldrup & Söhne (D&S) continues to implement its corporate restructuring programme and in July it sold 49% of Geysir Europe to IKAV. H119 results showed a small decline in profitability versus H18 (but an improvement versus FY18) and D&S believes the transition will continue into FY20. The executive board continues to guide for a total group output of €40m and an operational break-even for FY19. Consensus remains more optimistic than guidance and based on consensus forecasts, D&S is trading on an EV/sales multiple for FY19 of 1.2x, compared with a peer group average of 4.1x.

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