Go Internet |
Treading water |
Full year results |
Telecoms |
24 March 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next event
Analysts
Go Internet is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
GO internet’s (GO’s) FY15 results reflect the steady expansion of its network. FY16 has started somewhat slower and we now anticipate a more measured network expansion ahead of the funding from its majority shareholder and the proposed capital increase. We reduce our forecasts and valuation accordingly.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
EV/sales |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
P/E |
12/14 |
3.9 |
1.4 |
0.7 |
4.0 |
11.0 |
248.6 |
12/15 |
5.1 |
2.0 |
5.1 |
3.0 |
7.8 |
34.1 |
12/16e |
6.8 |
3.0 |
6.1 |
2.3 |
5.1 |
28.5 |
12/17e |
8.4 |
3.9 |
9.3 |
1.9 |
4.0 |
18.7 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Steady progress during 2015
Revenues of €5.1m (vs our forecast of €5.5m) and EBITDA of €2.0m (forecast €2.2m) were short of expectations but still increased 32% and 41% respectively. There were 8,238 net subscriber additions and we calculate an ARPU of €14.2 per month, down slightly on FY14, affected by price discounting in the latter months of the year. Operational leverage is starting to show, with 60% of each new €1 revenue converting to EBITDA and 88% of this converted to operating cash in FY15. The group spent €4.5m on expanding its network coverage (higher than our forecast as the company took advantage of early payment discounts), resulting in a net cash outflow in FY15 of €2.7m. Net debt increased to €5.5m (from €2.7m).
Slower expansion at the start of 2016
The rate of subscriber additions has slowed in FY16 so far, with 1,049 subscribers added in January and February, 37% below last year. This suggests GO is moderating marketing and network roll-out until it has secured additional funding. It has confirmed plans for a €4m capital increase and a €4m convertible bond, although the timing is not clear. In the meantime, GO’s majority shareholder, FC Gold, has issued a ‘Comfort Letter’ saying it will provide funding instalments up to €2m by 31 December 2016. In light of the slower pace of growth and lack of clarity on the timing of funding, we have reduced our forecasts to reflect a slower network expansion, reducing our year-end subscriber target, to 40k from 42k, and our FY16 and FY17 EBITDA by 10% and 17% respectively.
Valuation: Hinges on network expansion pace
GO’s valuation is contingent on the pace of network expansion. Provided FC Gold honours its commitment (the nature of any guarantees has not been disclosed), GO should have sufficient funding to continue to invest in growth its current regions. Our base case DCF, which assumes this, returns a value of €3.4 per share (down from €4.4 previously). However, to accelerate the pace of its network roll-out or participate in the upcoming spectrum auctions that would enable expansion into new regions, additional funding is required – clarity regarding this is a key catalyst for the shares in the short term.
Exhibit 1: Summary forecast changes
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
|||||||
|
forecast |
actual |
difference |
old |
new |
difference |
old |
new |
difference |
Revenues |
5,495 |
5,144 |
(6%) |
7,636 |
6,764 |
(11%) |
10,293 |
8,414 |
(18%) |
EBITDA |
2,235 |
2,010 |
(10%) |
3,675 |
3,040 |
(17%) |
5,287 |
3,895 |
(26%) |
Net income |
215 |
151 |
(30%) |
879 |
364 |
(59%) |
1,554 |
557 |
(64%) |
Capex |
(3,473) |
(4,476) |
29% |
(3,550) |
(3,256) |
(8%) |
(3,568) |
(3,239) |
(9%) |
Net debt |
4,964 |
5,463 |
10% |
5,517 |
6,092 |
10% |
4,836 |
5,992 |
24% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Summary forecasts
€000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
2,645 |
3,899 |
5,144 |
6,764 |
8,414 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(1,170) |
(2,053) |
(2,735) |
(2,930) |
(3,588) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
1,475 |
1,846 |
2,409 |
3,835 |
4,826 |
EBITDA |
|
|
887 |
1,425 |
2,010 |
3,040 |
3,895 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
166 |
373 |
587 |
769 |
1,098 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
0 |
(50) |
(86) |
0 |
0 |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(54) |
(7) |
(67) |
0 |
0 |
Other |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Operating Profit |
|
|
111 |
316 |
434 |
769 |
1,098 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(202) |
(292) |
(275) |
(314) |
(286) |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(36) |
81 |
312 |
456 |
812 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(90) |
24 |
159 |
456 |
812 |
Tax |
|
|
(10) |
(48) |
(8) |
(92) |
(255) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
(46) |
33 |
304 |
364 |
557 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(100) |
(24) |
151 |
364 |
557 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
4.16 |
4.93 |
5.99 |
5.99 |
5.99 |
|
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(1.11) |
0.67 |
5.07 |
6.07 |
9.30 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
(1.11) |
0.67 |
5.07 |
6.07 |
9.30 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
(2.41) |
(0.49) |
2.52 |
6.07 |
9.30 |
Dividend per share (€) |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
55.8 |
47.3 |
46.8 |
56.7 |
57.4 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
33.5 |
36.5 |
39.1 |
44.9 |
46.3 |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
|
6.3 |
9.6 |
11.4 |
11.4 |
13.0 |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
6,536 |
8,117 |
11,158 |
12,447 |
12,889 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
2,404 |
2,465 |
2,767 |
2,660 |
2,589 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
4,132 |
5,652 |
8,391 |
9,787 |
10,300 |
Investments |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Current Assets |
|
|
2,023 |
6,527 |
4,330 |
4,266 |
3,952 |
Stocks |
|
|
166 |
814 |
967 |
986 |
1,006 |
Debtors |
|
|
1,729 |
3,429 |
2,729 |
2,784 |
2,839 |
Cash |
|
|
128 |
2,284 |
338 |
200 |
(190) |
Other |
|
|
0 |
0 |
296 |
296 |
296 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(3,065) |
(5,093) |
(7,835) |
(8,392) |
(7,963) |
Creditors |
|
|
(1,384) |
(3,839) |
(5,034) |
(5,100) |
(5,161) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(1,681) |
(1,254) |
(2,801) |
(3,292) |
(2,802) |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(4,515) |
(3,911) |
(3,000) |
(3,304) |
(3,304) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(4,368) |
(3,771) |
(3,000) |
(3,000) |
(3,000) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(147) |
(140) |
0 |
(304) |
(304) |
Net Assets |
|
|
979 |
5,640 |
4,653 |
5,016 |
5,574 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
1,297 |
1,842 |
2,045 |
3,032 |
3,881 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(202) |
(292) |
(275) |
(314) |
(286) |
Tax |
|
|
(10) |
(48) |
(8) |
(92) |
(255) |
Capex |
|
|
(1,844) |
(2,670) |
(4,476) |
(3,256) |
(3,239) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Financing |
|
|
0 |
4,324 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Dividends |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other |
|
|
(29) |
6 |
(8) |
0 |
0 |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(788) |
3,162 |
(2,722) |
(629) |
101 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
5,152 |
5,921 |
2,741 |
5,463 |
6,092 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other |
|
|
19 |
18 |
0 |
0 |
(0) |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
5,921 |
2,741 |
5,463 |
6,092 |
5,992 |
Source: Go internet and Edison Investment Research |
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