Tyman — Trading reasonable but share price weak

Tyman (LN: TYMN)

Last close As at 27/03/2024

318.50

−4.50 (−1.39%)

Market capitalisation

625m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

Tyman — Trading reasonable but share price weak

Tyman’s trading update referenced firmer demand in two important European markets, some short-term input cost drag in North America and two small acquisitions, which enhance the group’s commercial and residential offerings respectively. Our small net EPS reduction for FY18 is followed by slightly larger upgrades in the following two years and, after a weak share price period, leaves Tyman trading on 7.7x P/E and 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiples in FY19 (first full year of acquisition contributions). Separately, Tyman has announced a CEO succession path with Louis Eperjesi to retire in June 2019, to be replaced by Jo Hallas (from Spectris).

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Industrials

Tyman

Trading reasonable but share price weak

Trading update

Construction & materials

21 November 2018

Price

254.5p

Market cap

£499m

£/U$1.29

Net debt (£m) at end-June 2018

218.6

Shares in issue

196.2m

Free float

91%

Code

TYMN

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(11.0)

(27.4)

(19.1)

Rel (local)

(9.5)

(20.4)

(13.7)

52-week high/low

384.0p

254.5p

Business description

Tyman’s product portfolio substantially addresses the residential RMI and building markets with increasing commercial sector exposure following acquisitions. It manufactures and sources window and door hardware and seals, reporting in three divisions: AmesburyTruth (North America 63%), ERA (UK 17%) and SchlegelGiesse (RoW 20%). (Percentages are pro forma FY17 revenue, including post year-end Ashland Hardware, Zoo Hardware, Profab & Reguitti acquisitions.)

Next events

2018 year end

December

FY18 results

5 March 2019

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Tyman is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Tyman’s trading update referenced firmer demand in two important European markets, some short-term input cost drag in North America and two small acquisitions, which enhance the group’s commercial and residential offerings respectively. Our small net EPS reduction for FY18 is followed by slightly larger upgrades in the following two years and, after a weak share price period, leaves Tyman trading on 7.7x P/E and 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiples in FY19 (first full year of acquisition contributions). Separately, Tyman has announced a CEO succession path with Louis Eperjesi to retire in June 2019, to be replaced by Jo Hallas (from Spectris).

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

457.6

62.1

25.3

10.5

10.1

4.1

12/17

522.7

68.3

26.7

11.3

9.5

4.4

12/18e

586.8

73.7

28.0

12.5

9.1

4.9

12/19e

635.7

88.6

33.0

13.5

7.7

5.3

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, as defined by Tyman, excluding intangible amortisation and exceptional items.

H2 trading update and two acquisitions

Tyman’s 10-month trading update included firmer conditions in the UK, Italy and China in H2 to date and slightly softer US new build start data were noted. Demand conditions elsewhere were similar to those seen in H1 and the company is on course to achieve underlying revenue growth for the year at AmesburyTruth (AT) and SchlegelGiesse (SG) with ERA broadly flat. In addition, acquisitions will benefit all three divisions, especially Ashland Hardware (AT) and Zoo Hardware (ERA), which have continued to perform well. In August, Tyman also bought Profab (ERA, commercial access doors) and Reguitti (SG, Italian residential door hardware manufacturer) for a combined EV of c £19m and annual revenue and EBIT of c £16.5m and £2.5–3m respectively. We have updated our estimates for these transactions, a small favourable £/U$ translation improvement compared to our previously published estimates. These effects are more than offset by a rising input cost pass-through lag in the US of c $5m; pressure here is considered temporary but we have made small reductions to our expected AT margins beyond FY18. The net impact is a c 4% reduction to FY18 earnings and c 2% enhancement in the next two years. Our end FY18 net debt projection is now c £219m, which is at the upper end of the company’s target range of 1.5–2.0x EBITDA (pro forma, annualised acquisition basis).

Valuation: Single digit P/E, dividend yield 4.9%

A healthy US economy and increasingly favourable £/U$ translation effect as the year has progressed (albeit broadly neutral y-o-y in H2) should have provided a favourable share price performance backdrop, in our view. However, Tyman’s share price has fallen by c 26% since the end of September. Investors appear to have taken a general (cycle and debt funding) risk-aversion stance and Tyman sentiment appears to be caught up in this. On our revised estimates, the current year P/E and EV/EBITDA are now 9.1x and 7.3x and both multiples reduce by around two points by FY20. The FY18e dividend yield has risen to 4.9%.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'m

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

Cont.

Cont.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

216.3

228.8

298.1

350.9

353.4

457.6

522.7

586.8

635.7

652.6

Cost of Sales

 

 

(145.2)

(154.0)

(198.8)

(236.1)

(234.0)

(290.4)

(331.8)

(370.3)

(400.6)

(409.4)

Gross Profit

 

 

71.1

74.7

99.3

114.8

119.4

167.3

190.9

216.4

235.1

243.2

EBITDA

 

 

27.7

28.5

39.4

54.6

60.9

82.5

91.7

100.0

117.7

123.2

Operating Profit (Edison)

 

 

22.4

23.4

33.0

46.9

52.9

70.9

78.8

85.7

101.8

106.7

Net Interest

 

 

(5.9)

(3.3)

(3.4)

(4.5)

(6.0)

(6.9)

(8.0)

(10.4)

(11.6)

(10.8)

Other Finance

 

 

(3.6)

(0.9)

0.2

(2.2)

(0.6)

(0.4)

(0.8)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Share Based Payments

 

 

(0.2)

(0.5)

(0.7)

(0.9)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(2.0)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

Intangible Amortisation

 

 

(10.6)

(10.8)

(16.6)

(17.8)

(19.6)

(21.7)

(22.9)

(26.0)

(28.2)

(28.2)

Exceptionals

 

 

0.7

(33.4)

(11.4)

(9.3)

(9.4)

(10.9)

(10.0)

(8.1)

(2.9)

(1.8)

Other

 

 

(0.1)

(0.4)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.4)

(0.5)

(0.6)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Profit Before Tax (Edison norm)

 

12.7

18.7

29.2

39.3

45.4

62.5

68.0

73.2

88.1

93.8

Profit Before Tax (Company norm)

 

17.4

21.3

28.6

41.6

45.4

62.1

68.3

73.7

88.6

94.3

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

2.6

(25.8)

0.8

11.9

16.1

29.4

34.5

38.9

56.8

63.6

Tax

 

 

6.4

3.7

0.2

(2.6)

(8.0)

(8.6)

(3.3)

(11.6)

(15.3)

(16.9)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

19.1

22.4

29.4

36.8

37.3

53.8

64.7

61.6

72.8

76.9

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

9.1

(22.1)

1.0

9.3

8.1

20.7

31.2

27.3

41.5

46.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

129.7

129.7

152.8

167.8

168.2

173.0

177.2

191.4

194.8

194.8

EPS - Edison normalised (p) FD

 

 

6.7

9.6

13.9

17.1

19.3

25.5

26.6

27.7

32.8

34.9

EPS - Company normalised (p) FD

 

 

9.4

10.2

13.5

18.4

19.4

25.3

26.7

28.0

33.0

35.1

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

6.8

(16.7)

0.6

5.6

4.8

12.0

17.6

14.3

21.3

24.0

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

3.4

4.5

6.0

8.0

8.8

10.5

11.3

12.5

13.5

14.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

32.9

32.7

33.3

32.7

33.8

36.5

36.5

36.9

37.0

37.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

12.8

12.5

13.2

15.6

17.2

18.0

17.5

17.0

18.5

18.9

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

10.4

10.2

11.1

13.4

15.0

15.5

15.1

14.6

16.0

16.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

Cont.

Cont.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

352.8

298.1

404.2

410.6

398.4

564.7

511.5

595.2

575.5

553.2

Intangible Assets

 

 

312.7

258.7

354.4

355.7

340.5

480.0

427.2

498.3

470.8

443.3

Tangible Assets

 

 

30.5

29.8

39.9

42.9

42.8

71.7

68.4

85.1

90.7

95.9

Investments

 

 

9.6

9.5

9.8

12.1

15.0

12.9

15.9

11.9

14.0

14.0

Current Assets

 

 

96.4

90.7

118.9

124.0

111.0

180.6

188.1

235.2

272.5

315.1

Stocks

 

 

26.6

27.6

40.7

47.6

46.0

70.7

75.3

98.1

102.1

104.3

Debtors

 

 

49.3

27.3

34.7

37.1

35.0

69.0

70.2

84.6

87.4

89.3

Cash

 

 

20.4

35.9

43.6

39.3

30.0

40.9

42.6

52.6

83.0

121.4

Current Liabilities

 

 

(55.1)

(44.2)

(60.8)

(52.3)

(44.4)

(86.4)

(82.0)

(89.5)

(91.4)

(94.9)

Creditors

 

 

(42.2)

(36.7)

(54.0)

(52.3)

(44.4)

(86.4)

(80.9)

(89.5)

(91.4)

(94.9)

Short term borrowings

 

 

(12.9)

(7.5)

(6.8)

0.0

0.0

0.0

(1.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(144.8)

(96.9)

(161.7)

(176.2)

(156.7)

(285.3)

(251.4)

(330.1)

(329.3)

(328.5)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(100.2)

(63.6)

(115.5)

(128.0)

(111.6)

(216.5)

(204.3)

(271.5)

(271.5)

(271.5)

Other long term liabilities

 

 

(44.6)

(33.3)

(46.2)

(48.2)

(45.1)

(68.8)

(47.0)

(58.6)

(57.8)

(57.1)

Net Assets

 

 

249.2

247.7

300.6

306.1

308.3

373.6

366.2

410.8

427.3

444.9

 

 

 

0.000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

Cont.

Cont.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

32.6

23.6

38.9

40.1

49.4

79.9

67.0

82.7

105.3

117.5

Net Interest

 

 

(6.7)

(4.2)

(2.6)

(4.6)

(6.2)

(7.0)

(7.6)

(10.4)

(11.6)

(10.8)

Tax

 

 

(1.9)

(4.9)

(6.2)

(6.3)

(8.9)

(12.7)

(15.1)

(10.1)

(13.8)

(15.4)

Capex

 

 

(4.9)

(6.8)

(8.1)

(10.2)

(10.9)

(15.3)

(12.6)

(17.5)

(22.3)

(22.3)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

(10.3)

51.2

(131.2)

(6.5)

6.8

(96.1)

(6.3)

(106.2)

0.0

(1.5)

Financing

 

 

(0.3)

(1.1)

68.1

(4.3)

(2.6)

16.7

(0.8)

47.1

(2.0)

(2.0)

Dividends

 

 

(2.6)

(5.8)

(7.0)

(10.9)

(14.6)

(15.6)

(19.5)

(21.2)

(25.2)

(27.2)

Net Cash Flow

 

 

6.0

51.9

(48.2)

(2.8)

13.0

(50.0)

5.1

(35.6)

30.5

38.4

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

91.7

92.7

35.2

78.7

88.7

81.6

175.6

162.9

218.9

188.4

HP finance leases initiated

 

 

(2.7)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(2.0)

0.0

0.0

Other

 

 

(4.4)

5.6

4.7

(7.2)

(5.9)

(44.0)

7.6

(18.5)

0.0

(0.0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

92.7

35.2

78.7

88.7

81.6

175.6

162.9

218.9

188.4

150.0

Source: Company, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by Tyman and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Tyman. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

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Level 4, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Tyman and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Tyman. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

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United States

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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