Esker |
Strong SaaS business, weaker legacy |
Q3 revenue update |
Software & comp services |
21 October 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Esker is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
Esker continues to see strong growth in its document process automation (DPA) business, particularly from its SaaS-based business. However, a larger than expected decline in legacy product sales in Q3 has prompted a more conservative outlook for the full year and we have revised our estimates to reflect this. In our view, the investment case for Esker rests on the success of the DPA business and in this respect we view the company as on track to continue to grow revenues and profitability.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
46.1 |
5.9 |
0.90 |
0.24 |
46.3 |
0.6 |
12/15 |
58.5 |
9.3 |
1.31 |
0.30 |
31.8 |
0.7 |
12/16e |
66.0 |
10.9 |
1.50 |
0.33 |
27.7 |
0.8 |
12/17e |
73.6 |
13.9 |
1.84 |
0.36 |
22.5 |
0.9 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised and diluted, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Q3 revenues – continued SaaS strength partially offset by legacy decline
Esker reported revenue growth of 10% for Q316 on both a reported and constant currency basis (constant currency organic growth Q2 14%, Q1 16%). Reported revenues for DPA grew 14% y-o-y whereas legacy product sales declined 11% y-o-y. DPA SaaS-based revenues grew 21% y-o-y (constant currency organic growth Q2 +24%, Q1 +20%). Recurring revenues exceeded 80% of the total.
Outlook and changes to estimates
Management expects to achieve organic growth of well over 10% for FY16. This is more conservative than the guidance for organic growth of 13-18% with H116 results, but we understand this is solely due to the drop in legacy product sales. We have revised our forecasts accordingly: FY16e revenues -1.4%, normalised EPS -8.1%; FY17e revenues -0.5%, normalised EPS -2.6%. Legacy product sales (mostly licences) have been in decline for several years and Esker has not focused any investment on this part of the business for some time, expecting it to eventually reduce to zero. From quarter-to-quarter these sales are relatively unpredictable, but as they make up a reducing proportion of the business (6% of Q316 revenues vs 10% a year ago), this should reduce the effect on group profitability.
Valuation: Reflects high level of recurring revenues
On an EV/sales and P/E basis, Esker is trading at a premium to document process automation (DPA) software companies and French small-cap software companies; in our view this is justified by forecast revenue growth and operating margins that are higher than both groups. In our view, the transition to SaaS is likely to suppress operating margins across the software sector (even after transition costs are taken into account). Esker is ahead of many peers in making this transition and is generating strong growth and margins. The company has recurring revenues of c 80%, which provides a high level of revenue and cash flow predictability.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€'000s |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
||
Year end 31 December |
French GAAP |
French GAAP |
French GAAP |
French GAAP |
French GAAP |
French GAAP |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
40,260 |
41,116 |
46,061 |
58,457 |
66,000 |
73,571 |
EBITDA |
|
|
6,637 |
6,598 |
8,979 |
13,405 |
15,376 |
18,516 |
Operating Profit (before amort and except) |
|
|
4,265 |
3,883 |
5,700 |
9,257 |
10,656 |
13,616 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(302) |
(500) |
(500) |
||
Exceptionals and other income |
(16) |
60 |
53 |
(245) |
(174) |
0 |
||
Other income |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
4,249 |
3,943 |
5,753 |
8,710 |
9,982 |
13,116 |
||
Net Interest |
38 |
6 |
220 |
(6) |
100 |
100 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
4,303 |
3,889 |
5,920 |
9,312 |
10,904 |
13,864 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
4,287 |
3,949 |
5,973 |
8,765 |
10,230 |
13,364 |
Tax |
(1,286) |
(761) |
(1,323) |
(2,292) |
(2,558) |
(3,341) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
3,012 |
3,140 |
4,609 |
6,877 |
8,178 |
10,398 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
3,001 |
3,188 |
4,650 |
6,473 |
7,673 |
10,023 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
64 |
67 |
97 |
138 |
159 |
194 |
EPS - normalised diluted (c) |
|
|
60 |
62 |
90 |
131 |
150 |
184 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
64 |
68 |
97 |
130 |
149 |
187 |
Dividend per share (c) |
14.00 |
18.00 |
24.00 |
30.00 |
33.00 |
36.00 |
||
Gross margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
16.5 |
16.0 |
19.5 |
22.9 |
23.3 |
25.2 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%) |
10.6 |
9.4 |
12.4 |
15.8 |
16.1 |
18.5 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
8,764 |
9,437 |
12,552 |
25,184 |
25,914 |
26,682 |
Intangible Assets |
5,521 |
6,458 |
7,709 |
19,603 |
20,534 |
21,552 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2,835 |
2,450 |
4,470 |
4,985 |
4,784 |
4,534 |
||
Other |
408 |
529 |
373 |
596 |
596 |
596 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
24,358 |
26,834 |
33,894 |
36,110 |
43,609 |
52,846 |
Stocks |
100 |
89 |
93 |
161 |
161 |
161 |
||
Debtors |
11,567 |
12,144 |
15,110 |
18,073 |
19,891 |
22,172 |
||
Cash |
11,393 |
13,411 |
17,559 |
16,295 |
21,976 |
28,932 |
||
Other |
1,298 |
1,190 |
1,132 |
1,581 |
1,581 |
1,581 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(15,551) |
(16,164) |
(19,827) |
(24,789) |
(26,711) |
(28,639) |
Creditors |
(15,551) |
(16,164) |
(19,827) |
(24,789) |
(26,711) |
(28,639) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(2,019) |
(1,450) |
(5,113) |
(7,317) |
(7,317) |
(7,317) |
Long term borrowings |
(2,019) |
(1,450) |
(5,113) |
(7,317) |
(7,317) |
(7,317) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
15,552 |
18,657 |
21,506 |
29,188 |
35,495 |
43,571 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
6,163 |
6,539 |
9,245 |
14,307 |
15,480 |
18,163 |
Net Interest |
122 |
90 |
310 |
(27) |
100 |
100 |
||
Tax |
(1,366) |
(645) |
(1,075) |
(1,165) |
(2,558) |
(3,341) |
||
Capex |
(3,548) |
(3,434) |
(4,028) |
(3,909) |
(5,951) |
(6,168) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
22 |
(11,700) |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
400 |
628 |
(694) |
1,324 |
159 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(550) |
(659) |
(877) |
(1,208) |
(1,550) |
(1,798) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
1,221 |
2,519 |
2,903 |
(2,378) |
5,681 |
6,956 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(8,526) |
(9,354) |
(11,961) |
(12,446) |
(8,978) |
(14,659) |
HP finance leases initiated |
(393) |
0 |
(2,293) |
(1,090) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(0) |
88 |
(125) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(9,354) |
(11,961) |
(12,446) |
(8,978) |
(14,659) |
(21,615) |
Source: Esker, Edison Investment Research
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