SDX Energy — Significant work programme starting

SDX Energy (LN: SDX)

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17.50

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Research: Energy & Resources

SDX Energy — Significant work programme starting

SDX Energy has completed the $10m equity raising to fund an accelerated drilling programme in Egypt and Morocco. This means it will be drilling wells with unrisked returns generating IRRs of more than 100%, according to the company, underlining the value of the H217 drilling programme. After the fund-raise, SDX will be fully funded to take the South Disouq discovery to first gas in early 2018, and to drill two exploration wells to explore for a further 150bcf in Egypt while increasing its Moroccan drilling programme to nine wells to boost resources and increase production. These will have the effect of increasing certainty on future developments and bringing forward valuable cash flows. These positive effects have been offset by a reduction in our long-term oil price assumption and some modelling adjustments. Our full NAV is now 64p/share.

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Written by

Energy & Resources

SDX Energy

Significant work programme starting

Funds and H2 drilling update

Oil & gas

29 September 2017

Price

52.1p

Market cap

£103m

£0.8/US$

Net cash ($m) at 30 June 2017

28

Shares in issue

204.5m

Free float

80%

Code

SDX

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

TSX Venture

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

11.8

(3.5)

131.7

Rel (local)

12.7

(3.0)

115.0

52-week high/low

67.4p

22.0p

Business description

SDX Energy is a North African onshore player listed in Toronto and London. It has oil and gas production in Egypt, and Moroccan gas production. A large gas discovery was recently made at South Disouq.

Next events

Heavy work programme in Egypt

H217/2018

Heavy work programme in Morocco

H217/2018

Analysts

Will Forbes

+44 (0)20 3077 5749

Elaine Reynolds

+44 (0)20 3077 5713

SDX Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

SDX Energy has completed the $10m equity raising to fund an accelerated drilling programme in Egypt and Morocco. This means it will be drilling wells with unrisked returns generating IRRs of more than 100%, according to the company, underlining the value of the H217 drilling programme. After the fund-raise, SDX will be fully funded to take the South Disouq discovery to first gas in early 2018, and to drill two exploration wells to explore for a further 150bcf in Egypt while increasing its Moroccan drilling programme to nine wells to boost resources and increase production. These will have the effect of increasing certainty on future developments and bringing forward valuable cash flows. These positive effects have been offset by a reduction in our long-term oil price assumption and some modelling adjustments. Our full NAV is now 64p/share.

Year
end

Revenues
($m)

PBT
($m)

Cash from
operations ($m)

Net cash
($m)

Capex
($m)

12/15

11.4

11.1

(5.2)

8.2

(5.1)

12/16

12.9

(26.7)

(1.9)

4.7

(11.9)

12/17e

35.8

4.8

22.8

23.8

(22.2)

12/18e

51.7

18.3

33.6

15.1

(44.7)

Note: Figures are as reported.

Expanding and delineating resources in Egypt

At South Disouq, the extra funding will allow the company to understand the true extent of the resources in the block sooner (targeting an incremental 150bcf in the Kelvin and Bragg prospects combined), enabling full development facilities to be right-sized and reducing costs in the long-term. Two development wells in the SD-1X structure (which is up-dip and may be connected to the Kelvin prospect) are also planned, potentially increasing resources there.

Adding to heavy drilling campaign in Morocco

In Morocco, the addition of two wells to the existing programme of seven increases the likelihood of finding valuable gas resources that can be put on production quickly and supply a hungry gas market (while also reducing mob/de-mob costs). SDX hopes to increase production by 50% in the next one to two years. Management estimates unrisked IRRs for these wells at significantly above 100% in an area where historical success has been 80%, underlining the commercial attractiveness of the assets.

Valuation: Full NAV of 64p/share

The added wells funded by the equity raise have the net effect of increasing the value in the company. Egyptian drilling will allow processing and pipeline facilities to be right-sized while drilling in Morocco should increase net resources and allow for quicker production increases. However, our NAV falls slightly as a result of reducing our long-term oil price assumption to $70/bbl in 2022 (from c $80/bbl) and reducing our nearer-term Egyptian gas price assumptions.

Investment summary

The over-subscribed fund-raising, completed on 15 September 2017, raised $10m and will enable SDX to drill four additional wells. Two exploration wells will be drilled in Egypt, targeting two prospects close to the South Disouq SD-1X discovery which together could add a further 150bcfe (78% gas/ 22% condensate assuming a similar gas oil ratio to the independent resource report). In Morocco, two further wells will target additional resources of 1.91bcf in aggregate, adding to the five development wells and two exploration wells already slated.

Egypt

The two additional exploration wells in Egypt are important to gauge the size of the resource as soon as possible. This will be used to right-size the processing facilities required to give the most economic development concept over the fields/prospects identified. SDX Energy has also committed to two appraisal/development wells that will target the first discovery, where the company believes substantially more gas could be de-risked by drilling on the flanks of the structure (which is thought to thicken out).

Kelvin and Bragg could add a combined 150bcf to resources (with additional condensates) and lie on trend with the existing discovery at South Disouq. As such, success here could add materially to the existing 47bcf (plus condensates) ascribed to the discovery by reserve auditor Gaffney Cline & Associates.

Exhibit 1: Kelvin and Bragg on trend with SD-1X

Source: SDX Energy

Success at both Kelvin and Bragg will likely justify capex invested in processing, while development of just the SD-1X resource would favour rented facilities. Success at both exploration wells would not mean that they are produced immediately. Instead, volumes would likely be produced over a staged period from all three fields, with gas being fed in as production from South Disouq (first discovery) starts to decline. The chart below gives an indication of our modelling – though this is open to modifications as and when drilling results come in.

Exhibit 2: South Disouq (and others) gas volumes modelled – assumes success in both follow-up wells at South Disouq

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Excludes condensate volumes in gas equivalent terms. In purely gas production.

Exhibit 3: Kelvin and Bragg locations

Exhibit 4: Well locations in Morocco

Source: SDX Energy

Source: SDX Energy

Morocco

In Morocco, SDX Energy plans to continue drilling the types of structures that have seen historical success rates in the licences of over 80%. As a result, the first seven of the nine wells that will now be drilled (with the first having spudded on 18 September) have a high chance of adding useful resources to the portfolio, with two wells at the end of the programme targeting riskier exploration opportunities. With around 0.8-1.0bcf per well, the company should be well-placed to increase production quickly to a market that is gas hungry.

The company believes the work programme can drive an increase in production of more than 50% above current levels (of net 639boe/d on a pro-forma basis in H117) in the next one to two years and increase resources by 100%. This should be absorbed by the market in Kenitra as the competing fuels (diesel or CNG) are substantially more expensive than the current prices paid; CNG prices are around $18/mcf, while the company expects to sign a future contract with customers at $10-12/mcf. This would boost cash flows expected from the development which can be recycled to help develop the Egyptian assets.

While the addition of two wells in the Moroccan programme was not obligatory and does add near-term capex, it does mean that virtually all the drilling required to boost production is done in one campaign, reducing the material mob/demob costs on a per well basis. It also fulfils a commitment well in the Gharb Centre licence.

Valuation

In our view the funding round was sensible despite the 9.4% increase in share count – the additional drilling funded by the equity raise is positive for the company, enabling it to firm up its resources faster, right-size development facilities and reduce long-term costs. The demand for the shares was strong, underlining the faith the institutional holders have in the story.

We have introduced our new long-term oil price assumption, with a $70/bbl Brent in 2022 (equivalent to $60/bbl real in 2016), inflating at 2.5% thereafter. This is around $10/bbl lower than our previous long-term assumption. In the nearer term, price assumptions remain the same with $50.8/bbl in 2017 and $51.6/bbl in 2018 moving steadily up to our long-term view. In addition, we have reviewed our expectations of gas prices in Egypt which reduces the value for the South Disouq discovery on a dollar per barrel basis.

As a result of the changes, our NAV falls slightly to 64p/share, but this is made up of a core production development NAV of 52p/share and relatively low risk development/exploration making up a further 12p/share. Importantly, the development of the assets/prospects should be internally funded with production from the SD-1X development generating cash flows as early as Q118 and Moroccan additions benefiting from the high gas prices.

Exhibit 5: NAV summary

Asset

Number of shares: 204.5m 

Recoverable reserves

 

Net risked value @ 12.5% discount rate

Country

WI

CoS

Gross

Net WI

Net

NPV

GBp

C$

 

%

%

mmboe

$/boe

$m

per share

Net (debt)/cash - June 2017

100%

100%

28

10.8

0.17

Cash in from equity raise

100%

100%

10

3.8

0.06

SG&A - NPV10 of 4yrs

100%

100%

(12)

(4.5)

(0.07)

Receivable for gas and NGLs at Gemsa

100%

100%

8

3.3

0.05

Production

Meseda Base case - Edison

Egypt

50%

100%

4.3

2.1

0.8

5.3

11

4.5

0.07

Meseda Base + Workovers - Edison

Egypt

50%

90%

5.8

2.9

1.1

4.4

12

4.5

0.07

Gemsa 1P

Egypt

50%

100%

3.3

1.6

1.6

9.5

15

6.0

0.10

Gemsa 2P

Egypt

50%

100%

1.4

0.7

0.7

4.3

3

1.2

0.02

Sebou 2P

Morocco

75%

100%

1.2

0.9

0.9

22.9

21

8.2

0.13

Sebou - accelerated programme (updated)

Morocco

75%

60%

1.0

0.8

0.8

11.8

7

2.9

0.05

South Disouq SD-1X well - GCA estimate

Egypt

55%

85%

10.1

5.6

5.6

4.6

22

8.5

0.14

Acquired working capital (NPV of four-year release)

Morocco

100%

100%

9

3.4

0.05

Core NAV

 

 

 

27.1

14.6

11.5

6.2

134

52.5

0.84

Development upside

Meseda Base + Workovers + Waterflood - Edison

Egypt

50%

50%

5.5

2.7

1.0

1.1

2

0.6

0.01

Gemsa - Edison modelling on full field

Egypt

50%

75%

1.6

0.8

0.8

4.3

3

1.0

0.02

Exploration (known and funded)

South Disouq - Kelvin

Egypt

55%

41%

15.1

8.3

8.3

3.4

11

4.4

0.07

South Disouq - Bragg

Egypt

55%

41%

14.6

8.0

8.0

3.2

11

4.1

0.07

South Disouq Upside

Egypt

55%

25%

11.3

3.1

3.1

4.2

3

1.3

0.02

Full NAV

 

 

 

75.2

37.6

32.8

164

64.0

1.03

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

As of the end of June 2017, SDX held $27.6m in cash and is well funded to execute its aggressive work programme in Egypt and Morocco in H217. We anticipate capex in H217 of $20.4m (after $1.8m in H1, excluding acquisitions and cash acquired), leaving full 2017 capex as $22.2m. After the additional cash flows that Egyptian and Moroccan production contributes and a release of working capital, we expect year end cash of $23m.

This level of cash flow generation and balance sheet strength should ensure the company’s ability to develop any discoveries, especially given the early cash flows we expect from the SD-1X discovery and the short timelines from discovery to production in Morocco.

Exhibit 6: Financial summary

Accounts: IFRS, Year-end: December, US$000s

 

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

Total revenues

 

24,533

11,372

12,914

35,809

51,675

Cost of sales

 

(3,639)

(4,973)

(5,282)

(11,681)

(16,176)

Gross profit

 

20,894

6,399

7,632

24,128

35,499

SG&A (expenses)

 

(1,768)

(3,746)

(2,457)

(3,419)

(1,846)

Other income/(expense)

 

0

(3)

479

0

0

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

(3,831)

(7,676)

(29,089)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Depreciation and amortisation

 

(1,602)

(2,057)

(3,266)

(14,913)

(14,397)

Reported EBIT

 

13,693

(7,083)

(26,701)

4,797

18,256

Finance income/(expense)

 

(1,009)

(96)

4

0

0

Other income/(expense)

 

0

18,289

0

0

0

Reported PBT

 

 

12,684

11,110

(26,697)

4,797

18,256

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

 

(4,328)

(1,063)

(1,503)

(273)

(1,108)

Reported net income

 

 

8,356

10,047

(28,200)

4,524

17,148

End period number of shares, m

 

 

376

38

80

204

204

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance sheet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

 

9,392

18,401

12,605

33,894

59,710

Intangible assets

 

 

16,460

23,473

10,623

8,645

13,113

Other non-current assets

 

 

1,999

2,106

2,503

2,879

2,879

Total non-current assets

 

 

27,851

43,980

25,731

45,418

75,702

Cash and equivalents

 

 

17,935

8,170

4,725

23,812

15,081

Inventories

 

 

0

1,188

1,698

1,698

2,351

Trade and other receivables

 

 

3,306

6,678

9,463

38,463

30,770

Other current assets

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Total current assets

 

 

21,241

16,036

15,886

63,973

48,203

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Other non-current liabilities

 

 

608

286

290

290

290

Total non-current liabilities

 

 

608

286

290

290

290

Trade and other payables

 

 

1,686

3,556

3,674

18,174

14,539

Current loans and borrowings

 

 

2,207

0

0

0

0

Other current liabilities

 

 

5,142

928

389

389

389

Total current liabilities

 

 

9,035

4,484

4,063

18,563

14,928

Equity attributable to company

 

 

39,449

55,246

37,264

90,538

108,687

Non-controlling interest

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash flow statement

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit before tax

 

 

12,684

11,110

(26,697)

4,797

18,256

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

1,602

2,057

3,266

14,913

14,397

Share based payments

 

 

1,064

761

(47)

1,000

1,000

Other adjustments

 

 

1,670

(12,281)

25,742

(1,156)

(2,354)

Movements in working capital

 

 

12,941

(2,183)

(3,440)

3,500

3,404

Interest paid/received

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Income taxes paid

 

 

(4,430)

(4,678)

(766)

(273)

(1,108)

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

 

25,531

(5,214)

(1,942)

22,781

33,596

Capex

 

 

(13,634)

(5,120)

(11,890)

(22,224)

(44,680)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

 

0

0

0

(30,000)

0

Other investing activities

 

 

1,110

4,836

825

781

2,354

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

(12,524)

(284)

(11,065)

(51,444)

(42,327)

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

 

0

0

10,127

47,750

0

Movements in debt

 

 

0

(3,702)

(96)

0

0

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

 

0

(3,702)

10,031

47,750

0

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

 

13,007

(9,200)

(2,976)

19,087

(8,731)

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

(615)

(565)

(469)

0

0

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

17,935

8,170

4,725

23,812

15,081

Net (debt) cash

 

 

15,728

8,170

4,725

23,812

15,081

Movement in net (debt) cash over period

 

 

12,392

(7,558)

(3,445)

19,087

(8,731)

Source: Edison Investment Research, company accounts

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by SDX Energy and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

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Level 12, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by SDX Energy and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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