Sale of HawkEye 360, returns to shareholders

Allied Minds 24 September 2019 Update
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Allied Minds

Sale of HawkEye 360, returns to shareholders

Class 1 disposal

Investment companies

24 September 2019

Price

60p

Market cap

£145m

US$1.24/£

Parent cash ($m) as at 31 December 2018

50.6

Shares in issue

241.3m

Free float

91%

Code

ALM

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

0.8

(20.4)

(12.3)

Rel (local)

(2.5)

(20.1)

(10.1)

52-week high/low

84.2p

37.3p

Business description

Allied Minds is an IP commercialisation company with a concentrated investment portfolio focused on early-stage companies within life sciences and technology. Its portfolio companies are spin-outs from US federal government laboratories and universities.

Next events

Interim results

26 September 2019

Analysts

Richard Williamson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Victoria Pease

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Allied Minds is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Allied Minds has announced the sale of its stake in HawkEye 360 for $65.6m to Advance Publications, a US family office. The transaction is expected to complete in Q419, subject to shareholder approval (shareholders representing 58% of shares have indicated they will vote in favour). HawkEye 360 announced its $70m Series B funding round in August 2019, backed by Airbus and Esri, at a pre-money valuation of $200m. The Advance offer has been struck at a c 13% discount to the fully diluted valuation of this last funding round, delivering a 5.6x ROI and IRR of 96%. The company expects to retain 50% of the proceeds with 50% (c 11p per share, pps) returned to shareholders via a special dividend or share buyback.

Period end

Ownership adjusted value (OAV) (US$m)

Parent-level net cash (US$m)

NAV
(US$m)

NAV/share
(p)

P/NAV
(x)

12/16

415.8

136.7

552.9

208.0

0.29

12/17

395.6

84.2

479.8

150.0

0.40

06/18

350.1

66.0

416.1

132.4

0.45

12/18*

226.7

50.6

277.3

92.7

0.65

Note: NAV is calculated as fair value plus net cash at the parent level. *FY18 NAV is based on our estimate of FY18 fair value as this is no longer disclosed by the company.

Sale of stake in HawkEye 360 for $65.6m

Following HawkEye 360’s recent Series B funding round with Airbus Industries and Esri (an international supplier of mapping software), Allied Minds has announced the sale of its stake in HawkEye 360 for $65.6m to Advance Publications, a US family office. Subject to shareholder approval, the deal is expected to complete in Q419. Gross cash proceeds from the disposal total $65.6m (21.9pps). Stripping out Allied Minds’ $5m participation in the Series B round (valued as cash), the deal represents a 5.6x ROI on Allied Minds’ investment and an IRR of 96%. Irrevocable undertakings or letters of support in favour of the transaction have been received from shareholders representing 58% of Allied Minds issued share capital.

Use of proceeds

Allied Minds intends to initially return $32.8m (11pps), 50% of the gross proceeds, to shareholders via a special dividend, share buyback or other method subject to market conditions. The remaining $32.8m should allow Allied Minds to continue to participate in future fund raisings within its existing technology portfolio to maximise long-term shareholder value.

Valuation: 35–38% discount to a de-risked NAV

This proposed disposal goes some way to validate Allied Minds’ strategy. Over the summer, Allied Minds delivered additional validation for two of its three principal portfolio companies and has now (subject to the shareholder vote) effected a material return of capital to shareholders. Allied Minds shares trade at a 35% discount to our estimated FY18 NAV of 92.7p or at a 38% discount to our estimated adjusted NAV of 96.3p (adjusted for HawkEye 360, Federated Wireless and cash).

Valuation: Material 35–38% discount to a de-risked NAV

Although Advance Publications’ offer is struck at a discount to the valuation of the latest funding round for HawkEye 360, the investment still promises very good returns for Allied Minds

After stripping out Allied Minds’ $5m participation in the Series B round (valued as cash), the gross cash proceeds from the disposal total $65.6m (21.9pps), representing a 5.6x ROI on Allied Minds’ investment and an IRR of 96% over the four-year investment life.

Based on the fully diluted valuation, the offer has been made at a c 13% discount to the valuation of the Series B round, of which only the first $35m tranche (of a $70m total round in total) has closed.

Exhibit 1: HawkEye 360

Company

Description

Net value at 31/12/18 (US$m)

Net cash invested (US$m)

Fair value change (US$m)

Net value as at 6/8/19 (US$m)

% held at 6/8/19

Uplift in fair value / share (p)

Uplift in NAV / share (p)

Advance offer value (24/9/19)

Advance discount to full Series B valuation

HawkEye 360

RF data analytics company

43.4

5.0

32.3

75.7

28.0

10.8

9.1

65.6

13.4%

Source: Company, Edison Investment Research

The proposed disposal goes some way to validate Allied Minds’ strategy. Over the summer, Allied Minds delivered additional validation for two of its three principal portfolio companies and has now (subject to the shareholder vote) effected a material return of capital to shareholders.

Based on our calculations, Allied Minds shares trade at a 35% discount to our estimated FY18 NAV of 92.7p or a 38% discount to our estimated adjusted NAV of 96.3p (adjusted for the anticipated cash proceeds from HawkEye 360, taking the valuation from the latest 4 September 2019 funding round for Federated Wireless, the cash invested in the HawkEye 360 and Federated Wireless funding rounds, as well as a nominal cash burn of $5m for H119).

Our portfolio analysis is set out below.

Exhibit 2: Latest adjusted NAV calculations

Company

Adjusted value at 31/12/18

US$

Adjusted value at 24/9/19

US$

AM fully diluted holding
24/9/19

Basis of estimate
of fair value

Spin Memory

73.4

73.4

34%

Valuation of last round

HawkEye 360

43.4

65.6

28%

Cash offer

Federated Wireless

63.5

72.0

36%

Valuation of last round

BridgeSat

30.9

30.9

63%

Valuation of last round

Precision Biopsy

2.5

2.5

55%

Cash value of bridge round

SciFluor

2.0

2.0

60%

Cash value of bridge round

TableUp

4.3

4.3

30%

Valuation of last round

Orbital Sidekick

3.9

3.9

30%

Valuation of last round

QuayChain

0.6

0.6

65%

Valuation of last round

Spark Insights

2.3

2.3

60%

Valuation of last round

Other investments

Fair value

226.7

257.4

 

 

Net cash held at the parent company

50.6

30.6

NAV

277.3

288.0

Implied NAV discount

Share price as at 24/9/19

60.0p

Full adjusted NAV

92.7

96.3p

38%

Top 4 adjusted NAV

91.1p

34%

FY18 NAV

92.7p

35%

Source: Company, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

$'000

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

7,715

3,300

2,664

5,001

5,561

Cost of Sales

(5,416)

(3,925)

(5,563)

(5,242)

(2,827)

Gross Profit

2,299

(625)

(2,899)

(241)

2,734

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(47,510)

(89,372)

(103,925)

(94,542)

(83,583)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(1,479)

(309)

(1,365)

(2,363)

(545)

Share-based payments

(8,939)

(7,041)

(8,385)

(7,562)

(7,413)

Reported operating profit

(57,928)

(96,722)

(113,675)

(104,467)

(91,541)

Net Interest

222

670

2,318

305

1,313

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0

0

0

0

(1,301)

Fair value changes

0

(1,937)

(17,585)

(6,953)

138,841

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(47,288)

(90,639)

(119,192)

(101,190)

55,270

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(57,706)

(97,989)

(128,942)

(111,115)

47,312

Reported tax

0

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(47,288)

(90,639)

(119,192)

(101,190)

55,270

Profit After Tax (reported)

(57,706)

(97,989)

(128,942)

(111,115)

47,312

Minority interests

12,228

20,192

32,609

35,337

(7,990)

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

(35,060)

(70,447)

(86,583)

(65,853)

47,280

Net income (reported)

(45,478)

(77,797)

(96,333)

(75,778)

39,322

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

186

215

217

236

241

EPS - basic normalised ($)

 

 

(0.19)

(0.33)

(0.40)

(0.28)

0.20

EPS - diluted normalised ($)

 

 

(0.19)

(0.33)

(0.40)

(0.28)

0.20

EPS - basic reported ($)

 

 

(0.24)

(0.36)

(0.44)

(0.32)

0.16

Dividend ($)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

n/a

(57.2)

(19.3)

87.7

11.2

Gross Margin (%)

29.8

-18.9

-108.8

-4.8

49.2

Normalised Operating Margin

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

44,039

92,784

38,232

28,369

86,096

Intangible Assets

3,409

4,384

2,762

1,074

1,221

Tangible Assets

16,330

34,173

31,882

26,627

5,997

Investments & other

24,300

54,227

3,588

668

78,878

Current Assets

 

 

248,991

158,427

232,007

184,792

107,034

Stocks

2,919

1,511

2,551

0

0

Debtors

6,305

7,342

5,900

15,642

6,400

Cash & cash equivalents

224,075

105,555

209,151

158,075

100,234

Cash at parent*

 

 

n/a

n/a

136,700

84,200

50,600

Other

15,692

44,019

14,405

11,075

400

Current Liabilities

 

 

(62,480)

(108,974)

(155,402)

(200,202)

(69,557)

Creditors

(11,339)

(14,268)

(13,941)

(14,276)

(13,030)

Tax and social security

(947)

(395)

(458)

(4,296)

(2,333)

Short term borrowings

(213)

(228)

(115)

0

0

Subsidiary preferred shares

(49,981)

(94,083)

(140,888)

(181,630)

(54,194)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(717)

(863)

(720)

(867)

(436)

Long term borrowings

(338)

(112)

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(379)

(751)

(720)

(867)

(436)

Net Assets

 

 

229,833

141,374

114,117

12,092

123,137

Minority interests

4,946

10,631

20,797

59,241

4,490

Shareholders' equity

 

 

234,779

152,005

134,914

71,333

127,627

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(44,618)

(85,286)

(97,290)

(88,440)

(77,525)

Working capital

(981)

2,652

468

(2,477)

6,033

Exceptional & other

0

0

0

0

(283)

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(45,599)

(82,634)

(96,822)

(90,917)

(71,775)

Capex

(1,764)

(23,213)

(4,087)

(1,522)

(9,110)

Acquisitions/disposals

(38,967)

(51,786)

74,816

5,853

(18,884)

Net interest

222

716

1,602

138

896

Equity financing

154,408

2,443

79,319

1,595

1,594

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

Other

54,473

36,165

48,993

33,892

39,438

Net Cash Flow

122,773

(118,309)

103,821

(50,961)

(57,841)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

NA

(223,524)

(105,215)

(209,036)

(158,075)

FX

0

0

0

0

0

Other non-cash movements

0

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(223,524)

(105,215)

(209,036)

(158,075)

(100,234)

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Allied Minds and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Allied Minds. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Allied Minds and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Allied Minds. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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