Record year of profits

Carr's Group 9 November 2015 Update

Carr's Group

Record year of profits

Full year results

Food producers

9 November 2015

Price

150.8p

Market cap

£135m

Net debt (£m) at end August 2015

24.4

Shares in issue

89.8

Free float

78%

Code

CARR

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

4.0

(8.8)

(8.1)

Rel (local)

3.6

(3.7)

(7.5)

52-week high/low

178.0p

134.0p

Business description

Carr’s Agriculture division serves farmers in the North of England, the Borders and Scotland, the US, Germany and New Zealand. The Food division mills flour in the UK. The Engineering division offers remote handling equipment and fabrications to the global nuclear and oil and gas industries.

Next event

AGM

5 January 2016

Analysts

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Roger Johnston

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Carr’s strategy of innovation, investment and internationalisation has delivered another record year of profits despite challenging markets for all three divisions. We expect this strategy to mitigate the impact of continued weakness in the markets served, enabling the group to maintain profit at these record levels. We revise our estimates to reflect market conditions and see fair value at 199p/share (previously 203p/share).

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

08/14

429.0

17.0

13.2

3.4

11.4

2.3

08/15

411.6

18.1

14.0

3.7

10.8

2.5

08/16e

403.2

18.1

13.9

3.8

10.8

2.5

08/17e

409.2

18.3

14.1

3.9

10.7

2.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments. EPS and DPS are stated after 10-for-1 share split.

Strategy delivers record pre-tax profits

Adjusted group profit before tax grew by 6% year-on-year to £18.1m, in line with our estimates. Strong profit growth in the Agriculture division was driven by international feed block sales, acquisitions and investment in the Country Store portfolio. Targeted investment in the Flour division supported sales volume growth and a modest improvement in divisional profit. Growth in these two divisions offset a reduction in Engineering profits caused by weak demand from the oil and gas sector. The 4% reduction in group revenues reflects lower commodity prices.

Strategy gives protection from market challenges

Industry analysts expect lower farmgate milk prices in the UK and the US to persist throughout FY16. We expect this to have a negative impact on demand for feed supplements and farm machinery and on feed margins, balancing growth in feed block demand in the US following redevelopment of the Nevada manufacturing facility. We expect changing consumer purchasing patterns and associated supply chain pressures to adversely affect margins in the Flour division. On the other hand, the Engineering division has reported a revival in contracts from the nuclear sector, which will more than compensate for continued weakness in the oil and gas sector, as nuclear-related work typically commands a higher margin. We revise our estimates to give a repeat of FY15’s record profit performance in FY16 rather than further growth.

Valuation: Potential for share price appreciation

Our sum-of-the-parts analysis gives fair value at 199p/share (previously 203p). Triggers to close the valuation gap include an improvement in farmgate milk prices (even though Carr’s is less affected by this than its peers), additional engineering contracts and further acquisitions.

Financials

Exhibit 1: Segmental analysis

(£m)

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16e

FY17e

FY18e

Agriculture

293.8

340.4

314.9

297.7

291.7

294.7

297.6

Food

80.5

94.2

87.1

80.3

75.0

77.0

79.0

Engineering

29.7

33.4

26.9

33.5

36.5

37.5

38.4

Group revenues

404.1

468.1

429.0

411.6

403.2

409.2

415.0

Agriculture (including share of profits of JVs and associates)

9.5

11.6

12.1

12.7

12.7

12.9

13.1

Food

0.4

0.6

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.2

Engineering

4.7

4.2

3.7

3.1

3.6

3.7

3.8

Head office net expense and other

(1.1)

(0.3)

(0.9)

(0.7)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

Retirement benefit charge

(0.5)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.1)

(0.4)

(0.4)

(0.4)

Reported group PBT

13.1

15.4

16.6

17.5

17.5

17.8

18.1

Source: Edison Investment Research

Agriculture (£297.7m revenues, £12.7m profit before tax)

Divisional revenues declined by 5% year-on-year reflecting lower commodity prices. Divisional profit before tax rose by 6%. Sales of feed blocks in the US continued to rise, supported by a recovery in the beef industry following a period of protracted drought, and market share gains following the commissioning of a low-moisture feed block plant in Iowa in July 2014. However, demand for feed blocks in the UK was adversely affected by the availability of forage and constraints on farm incomes. Retail sales rose by 9% (5% like-for-like). This growth was supported by the acquisitions of B E Williams in July 2014 and W M Nicholls in October 2014, both of which strengthen the group’s presence in south Wales, as well as investment in the Country Store portfolio, with redevelopment of the facilities in Appleby and Selkirk. Volumes of feed sold increased by 4% as Carrs took market share, but margins were under pressure in localised areas because of the dip in farmgate milk prices and increased competitive activity relating to Mole Valley Farmers’ new mill in south-west Scotland. Low milk prices globally mean that dairy farmers in both the UK and the US were less incentivised to boost milking cows’ productivity, so there was a reduction in demand for high-margin AminoMax bypass proteins in both regions.

In the longer term, we expect the division to benefit from the adoption of more sophisticated feed regimens for dairy and beef cattle across the developed world. Nearer term, management expects commissioning of the low-moisture block line in Nevada to be completed this month. This will give access to the significant West Coast dairy market. Management continues to consider locating a feed block production facility in New Zealand, where sales are already in excess of 1,500 tonnes annually. This programme has been delayed because the proposed New Zealand partner has recently undergone substantial organisational changes. The group has recently engaged personnel in Brazil to develop this potential market for feed blocks. We expect further retail sales growth arising from a new store in Rothbury, which opened in July, and the acquisition in June of Reid & Robertson, which has a country store and two satellite outlets, strengthening the group’s presence in west Scotland. We note that the division is less dependent on demand for dairy feed than NWF Group because it also sells substantial volumes of sheep and beef cattle feed. Given the location of the rural areas that Carr’s serves in the UK, the division has little exposure to the arable sector, so it has not been affected significantly by a reduction in demand for arable inputs such as fertiliser, pesticides or seeds caused by low wheat prices.

Noting continued low commodity prices, we maintain our divisional FY16 revenue estimate at £291.7m, giving a 2% divisional revenue reduction year-on-year. We expect growth in demand for feed blocks following commissioning of the Nevada feed-block manufacturing facility to offset margin pressure on feeds, so we maintain FY16 profit before tax at FY15 levels (£12.7m) rather than raising FY16 divisional profit before tax to £13.0m as previously.

Food (£80.3m revenues, £2.4m profit before tax)

Divisional revenues declined by 8% year-on-year. Volumes increased by 5% as the two northern mills won new customers. The investment programme is key to attracting new business. Customers require the highest levels of flour quality, food safety and service levels. They are attracted by the state-of-the-art equipment in the Kirkcaldy mill, which commenced production in September 2013 after a £17m investment programme. As capacity here has been filled, there has been investment in the Silloth mill to ensure compliance with newer food-handling standards. Divisional profit before tax grew by 6%, reflecting improved operational efficiencies on higher volumes. Both the northern mills benefit from port-side locations, which reduces freight costs. During H115 this enabled them to source imported wheat cost-effectively, the 2014 UK harvest being generally of insufficient quality for producing bread-making flour. By contrast, the 2015 UK harvest was of consistently good quality, so the mills were able to ship wheat from Kent in a cost-effective manner. The reduced freight costs and improved operating efficiencies have helped offset pricing pressures caused by intense competition between supermarkets.

Management expects pricing pressures to continue. It also notes a reduction in demand for white sliced bread, as consumers switch to other formats such as tortilla wraps. This is beneficial for the Maldon mill, which specialises in ethnic flours, but unhelpful for the northern mills, where a significant proportion of milling relates to flour for ordinary white loaves.

Noting continued low commodity prices and margin pressure, we reduce our divisional FY16 revenue estimate from £81.4m to £75.0m and our profit before tax estimate from £2.7m to £2.2m. This gives a 7% reduction in divisional revenues year-on-year and a 10% reduction in divisional profit before tax.

Engineering (£33.5m revenues, £3.1m pre-tax profit)

Divisional revenues rose by 25%. This was partly the result of a full year’s contribution from Chirton Engineering acquired in April 2014. It was also the result of high levels of utilisation at Bendalls as it worked on a £9m contract to deliver 33 pressure vessels for the BP Shah Deniz gas pipeline in Azerbaijan. Wälischmiller and Carrs MSM, both of which are focused on the nuclear industry, continued to perform well. By contrast, a lack of capital investment by Chirton’s customers in the oil exploration sector had an adverse impact on order intake, resulting in low utilisation levels. This was exacerbated by delays in moving the business to larger premises. Divisional profit before tax reduced by 17% year-on-year.

Although cutbacks in the global oil and gas industry will continue to affect the division’s profitability in the short term, management expects this to be more than offset by a recovery in the UK nuclear sector, which is already reflected in the order books at Bendalls, Carrs MSM and Wälischmiller. We note that historically a relatively high proportion of Bendalls’ order book was related to the UK nuclear industry, with the business pursuing lower-margin work in the oil and gas sector more recently to make up the shortfall caused by a slowdown in the UK nuclear energy programme. Chirton has the greatest exposure to the oil and gas industry. We note that post-acquisition it has started to supply machined parts to Wälischmiller and has submitted joint tenders with Bendalls for projects in the nuclear industry, which have yet to be awarded. Management has begun to develop a design function in the division, which will not only generate profits from providing design services, but also promote the engagement of the other engineering businesses in the group for the contracts on which it is engaged.

Noting the intake of orders relating to the nuclear industry, we raise our FY16 divisional revenue estimate from £32.8m to £36.5m and our divisional profit estimate from £3.2m to £3.6m. This gives a 9% rise in divisional revenues year-on-year and a 16% increase in divisional profit before tax.

Group

P&L

Group revenues reduced by 4% year-on-year to £411.6m, in line with our estimates, reflecting lower commodity prices. Profit before tax (adjusted for amortisation, share-based payments and exceptional) rose 6% year-on-year to £18.1m, also in line with our estimates. Profit gains in the Agriculture and Food divisions offset a comparatively weak performance from the Engineering division. DPS was raised from 3.4p to 3.7p.

The changes to divisional estimates discussed earlier result in the revisions at group level summarised in Exhibit 2. The net effect is for group revenue estimates to reduce by 2% year-on-year to reflect low commodity prices and for group profit before tax to remain at FY15’s record levels instead of increasing further. We note that the FY15 retirement benefit charge (see Exhibit 1) was anomalously low because of a credit and expect a higher level going forward. We expect the group to maintain its progressive dividend policy.

Exhibit 2: Changes to estimates

Normalised EPS (p)

Normalised PBT (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2015

14.0

14.0*

N/A

17.9

18.1*

N/A

21.8

22.2

N/A

2016e

14.6

13.9

(4.1)

18.4

18.1

(1.6)

21.9

22.0

0.5

2017e

14.9

14.1

(5.4)

18.9

18.3

(3.2)

22.2

22.0

(0.9)

2018e

-

14.4

N/A

-

18.7

N/A

-

22.2

N/A

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Actual.

Balance sheet and cash flow

Net debt reduced very slightly, by £0.2m during the year to £24.4m. Net capital expenditure was lower at £5.5m (FY14 £6.5m), as the previous year included costs related to completion of the new factory and offices for Wälischmiller in Germany and the Kirkcaldy flour mill. Capex was lower than expected because some of the costs of completing the Nevada Springs facility were deferred until FY16. The retirement benefit surplus reduced from £2.1m at end FY14 to £1.8m at end FY15. Gearing reduced slightly during the year, from 31% to 28%.

Looking forward, we expect the inclusion of some of the Nevada Springs costs to push FY16 capex to a relatively high £8.4m. Our model shows net debt reducing by £2.2m to £22.2m at end FY16. Net cash generation then improves during FY17 and FY18 as capital expenditure requirements reduce, leaving the group in a net cash position (£1.0m) at the end of FY18.

Valuation

Exhibit 3: Comparative valuations of listed companies involved in agricultural supply

Company

 

Market cap

Current P/E

Next P/E

BayWa

 

£745m

12.3x

12.1x

NWF Group

 

£81m

12.3x

12.1x

Origin Enterprises

 

£604m

12.9x

12.2x

Wynnstay Group

 

£102m

14.6x

14.4x

Mean

13.0x

12.7x

Carr’s Group

 

£136m

10.9x

10.7x

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: Prices at 4 November 2015

Our valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis of the group and sees fair value at 199p/share (previously 203p). We have determined an appropriate prospective P/E ratio for each division and then calculated a blended P/E multiple, which is weighted according to the proportion of pre-tax profits contributed by each division. The prospective multiple for the Agriculture division, together with the associates and JVs, which are primarily involved in agricultural supply-related activities, is based on the mean for our sample of companies engaged in agricultural supply-related activities. The prospective multiple for the Food division is based on the mean for the UK Food Producers and Processors sector (Bloomberg). The prospective multiple for the Engineering division is based on the mean for the German Industrial Engineering sector (Bloomberg), where the majority of the division’s profits originate.

Exhibit 4: Sum-of-the-parts analysis

% Year 1 PTP

Year 1 P/E

Comment

Agriculture including JVs and associates

68.6%

13.0x

Average for sample of agricultural supply companies.

Food

11.9%

15.1x

Sector average for UK Food Producers and Processors.

Engineering

19.5%

18.2x

Sector average for German Industrial companies.

Weighted

14.3x

Year 1 EPS

13.9p

Valuation

199p

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices at 4 November 2015.

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

£m

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

Year-end 31 August

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

429.0

411.6

403.2

409.2

415.0

EBITDA

 

 

20.9

22.2

22.0

22.0

22.2

Operating Profit (pre-amort. of acq intangibles & SBP)

 

15.8

17.0

16.6

16.5

16.8

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

(0.4)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

15.4

16.4

16.0

16.0

16.2

Net Interest

(1.4)

(1.2)

(1.0)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Share of post-tax profits in JVs and associates

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.7

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

17.0

18.1

18.1

18.3

18.7

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

16.6

17.5

17.5

17.8

18.1

Tax

(3.7)

(3.8)

(3.8)

(4.0)

(4.0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

13.3

14.3

14.2

14.4

14.6

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

12.9

13.7

13.6

13.8

14.1

Post tax profit (loss) relating to discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Minority interest

(1.5)

(1.7)

(1.7)

(1.7)

(1.7)

Net income (norm)

11.8

12.6

12.5

12.7

12.9

Net income (FRS 3)

11.4

12.0

11.9

12.1

12.4

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

89.0

89.6

89.8

89.8

89.8

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

13.2

14.0

13.9

14.1

14.4

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

12.8

13.6

13.5

13.6

13.9

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

12.3

13.4

13.3

13.4

13.8

Dividend per share (p)

3.4

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

4.9

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

3.7

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

83.4

86.5

90.3

89.2

88.2

Intangible Assets

10.3

11.3

11.1

10.9

10.9

Tangible Assets and Deferred tax assets

73.1

75.2

79.2

78.3

77.4

Current Assets

 

 

114.3

116.9

113.1

105.1

108.2

Stocks

33.3

35.0

35.4

29.1

29.6

Debtors

63.7

65.3

66.1

56.9

57.7

Cash

17.3

16.5

11.7

19.0

20.9

Current Liabilities

 

 

(75.6)

(70.2)

(66.8)

(53.4)

(51.0)

Creditors including tax, social security and provisions

(55.9)

(55.0)

(54.7)

(44.3)

(44.9)

Short term borrowings

(19.7)

(15.2)

(12.2)

(9.2)

(6.2)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(32.3)

(34.2)

(30.2)

(26.2)

(22.2)

Long term borrowings

(22.2)

(25.7)

(21.7)

(17.7)

(13.7)

Other long term liabilities

(10.1)

(8.5)

(8.5)

(8.5)

(8.5)

Net Assets

 

 

89.8

99.0

106.3

114.7

123.1

Minority interest

(10.2)

(11.9)

(11.9)

(11.9)

(11.9)

Shareholders equity

 

 

79.7

87.1

94.4

102.8

111.2

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow (net of contribution to pension fund)

 

 

17.1

15.1

19.8

27.0

21.6

Net Interest

(1.4)

(1.2)

(1.0)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Tax

(3.2)

(4.0)

(3.8)

(4.0)

(4.0)

Investment activities

(7.5)

(4.0)

(8.4)

(4.4)

(4.4)

Acquisitions/disposals

(3.6)

(1.7)

(1.0)

0.0

0.0

Equity financing and other financing activities

(4.1)

(1.8)

(7.0)

(7.0)

(7.0)

Dividends

(2.9)

(3.1)

(3.3)

(3.4)

(3.5)

Net Cash Flow

(5.7)

(0.7)

(4.8)

7.4

1.9

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

22.1

24.6

24.4

22.2

7.9

HP finance leases initiated

(2.3)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(5.5)

(0.9)

(7.0)*

(7.0*)

(7.0)*

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

24.6

24.4

22.2

7.9

(1.0)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Repayment of long-term debt. EPS and DPS are stated after 10-for-1 share split.

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