RNTS Media — Programmatic and video power growth

RNTS Media — Programmatic and video power growth

Exponential growth of programmatic and video ad formats enabled RNTS to grow revenues by 69% in FY16, at the top of its peer set. Management has reiterated its expectation of ongoing strong growth in 2017 and EBITDA profitability. The recent restructuring of the €150m convertible bonds frees the group’s hand to put in place additional financing, required to satisfy earnouts. This would remove an overhang on the shares, which trade in line with peers on FY17e EV/sales multiples.

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Written by

RNTS Media

Programmatic and video power growth

Full year update

Software & comp services

4 May 2017

Price

€1.90

Market cap

€218m

Net debt (€m) at 30 September 2016

111

Shares in issue

114.5

Free float

61%

Code

RNM

Primary exchange

FRA

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

2.5

(17.4)

(7.3)

Rel (local)

0.3

(23.2)

(26.6)

52-week high/low

€3.4

€1.5

Business description

RNTS Media has two complementary mobile ad tech platforms at its core: Fyber and Inneractive. Their supply-side platforms help app developers and publishers overcome the challenges of a fragmented ecosystem by consolidating a wide range of advertising demand onto one platform. RNTS is one of the world’s largest independent groups in this space.

Next events

Q117 results

31 May 2017

FY16 audited results

26 July 2017

Analysts

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

RNTS Media is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Exponential growth of programmatic and video ad formats enabled RNTS to grow revenues by 69% in FY16, at the top of its peer set. Management has reiterated its expectation of ongoing strong growth in 2017 and EBITDA profitability. The recent restructuring of the €150m convertible bonds frees the group’s hand to put in place additional financing, required to satisfy earnouts. This would remove an overhang on the shares, which trade in line with peers on FY17e EV/sales multiples.

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

EBITDA
cont (€m)

EBIT
cont (€m)

PBT cont** (€m)

PBT
reported (€m)

EV/sales
(x)

12/14

64.0

0.7

(1.5)

(2.0)

(10.8)

5.6

12/15

81.1

(13.7)

(15.2)

(18.6)

(40.3)

4.2

12/16e

170.0/218.1*

(10.9)/(5.8)*

(14.4)

(24.4)

(33.6)

2.0/1.7*

12/17e

285.0

3.9

(0.5)

(4.2)

(11.2)

1.3

Note: *Pro forma. **PBT is normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, discontinued operations, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Guidance for strong growth reiterated

Pro forma (PF) preliminary results were as indicated in the February trading update. Gross revenues increased by 69% to €218.1m and the EBITDA loss, adjusted for one-off and non-cash items, was €5.8m with the Q4 EBITDA loss close to break-even at €0.5m. Underpinning this increase was the exceptional growth in programmatic trading (+300%) and video ad formats (+280%), which accounted for 59% and 44% of revenues in the year. With the full integration of acquisitions and its focus on mobile, programmatic and video, management expects growth to continue in FY17 and has reiterated its guidance for revenues and adjusted EBITDA profits of above €280m and €3m respectively.

Convertibles restructured

In April, RNTS announced that it had successfully restructured its €150m convertible bonds. This is a significant step for the group as it not only reduces the interest burden of this debt (the coupon will be reduced form 5% to 3%) but, in subordinating any claims to bank finance, it should also help RNTS put in place additional bank financing, and satisfy earnout obligations in relation to Heyzap and Inneractive as well as ongoing working capital requirements. Management is in negotiations on a variety of financing options.

Valuation: More digestible on EV/sales multiples

RNTS is well positioned in the most rapidly growing segments of advertising technology, evident in its pro forma growth rates, which are the highest among its US and European peers. This is reflected in its FY17e EV/gross revenue multiple which, while still above the sector average (0.7x), is in line with peers that are generating similar growth rates (eg The Trade Desk and Taptica), although it still lags these companies on profitability metrics. Putting in place the required financing should lift a significant overhang on the shares, removing another barrier to the shares’ performance.

Convertible restructuring

In April, RNTS announced that it had successfully restructured its €150m convertible bonds. This involved:

the reduction in the conversion price from €4.2 per share to €3.0 per share;

a reduction in the fixed interest payable from 5% to 3%, and a waiver of the coupon in July 2017; and

a subordination of the claims under the convertible bonds to bank lenders in respect of bank financing.

This in effect means a €3.75m saving this year (July’s coupon) and a €3.0m annual interest saving from next year (coupon reduced from €7.5m to €4.5m). The subordination of claims should also make it easier to put in place additional banking facilities. While we forecast that the group moves to EBITDA profitability this year, additional facilities are needed to satisfy earnout obligations in relation to Heyzap and Inneractive, as well as for ongoing working capital requirements.

Inneractive was acquired for $46m in July 2016, with potential future earnouts of up to $26m. It grew by 114% last year and has exceeded its earnout criteria. These earnouts are scheduled to be paid annually until 2019. However, management would like to advance the payment of these earnouts to accelerate the integration of the platforms and fully realise their synergy potential.

Heyzap was acquired for an initial payment of $20m in January 2016, with earnout and retention payments of up to $25m. While Heyzap’s growth has not been separately disclosed, the combined Heyzap and Fyber division grew by 6% in FY16. Management has disclosed that Heyzap has only partially met its earnout criteria and negotiations with regard to final payment are ongoing.

We had previously assumed that 50% of the Heyzap earnout was triggered (in FY17) and 100% of Inneractive’s (across 2017 to 2019). We are updating this assumption to reflect a €5m earnout payment for Heyzap. Until the group has secured additional financing, we are not reflecting the planned acceleration of the earnout payment for Inneractive. In total, we assume a payment of €15m in FY17.

FY16 preliminary results

Exhibit 1: Pro forma 2016 preliminary results

 

H115 PF

Q315 PF

Q415 PF

FY15 PF

 

H116 PF

Q316 PF

Q416

FY16 PF

Total gross revenues

49,851

30,511

48,758

129,120

 

94,800

52,306

70,994

218,100

Revenue growth

90%

71%

46%

69%

Gross profit

17,158

9,419

14,123

40,700

 

28,749

15,028

18,623

62,400

Gross margin

34.4%

30.9%

29.0%

31.5%

30.3%

28.7%

26.2%

28.6%

EBITDA - continuing operations

(5,754)

(5,348)

(1,098)

(12,200)

 

(2,310)

(2,983)

(507)

(5,800)

Source: RNTS Media. Note: PF figures are on a like-for-like basis and reflect acquisitions as if they had been acquired from January 2015.

Revenues increased by 69% to €218.1m (vs guidance of above 65% growth). Underpinning this growth was the exceptional growth at Inneractive (+114%) and Fyber RTB (+362%) and steadier growth at Fyber/Heyzap (+6%). This performance is a reflection of the strong growth of programmatic trading (+300% y-o-y to represent 59% of total group turnover) and video ad formats (+280% to represent 44% of total group turnover), testament to RNTS’s ability to leverage its video capabilities across the group.

Gross margins at 29% were down on last year’s 32%. This is largely due to mix effects given the exponential growth of the lower-margin Fyber RTB division. In Fyber RTB, gross margins increased by 14.1pp y-o-y to 19.3%, with the platform benefiting from integration into the wider RNTS network.

EBITDA loss (adjusted for one-off and not cash items) was €5.8m, slightly ahead of our pro forma forecast of €5.1m, with Q4 EBITDA close to break-even at €0.5m, as targeted by management.

Summary forecast changes

Management has reiterated its expectation for ongoing strong growth in the current year, guiding to revenues of above €280m and positive EBITDA across the year of over €3m. This is broadly in line with our forecasts, which we leave unchanged at the adjusted EBITDA level (we increase our revenue estimate from €275m to €285m). We have also updated our cost of financing assumptions to reflect the lower coupon rate on the convertibles and have adjusted our estimates for the earnouts as described earlier.

Overall, this means a reduction in our forecast normalised pre-tax loss in FY17 to €4.2m (from €7.9m) and a reduction in our forecast FY17 net debt of €10m to €127.9m.


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

 

 

€'000s

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Dec

 

 

Pro forma

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

64,024

81,076

170,000

285,000

Cost of Sales

(39,641)

(56,739)

(121,824)

(208,653)

Gross Profit

24,383

24,337

48,176

76,348

EBITDA - continuing

 

 

685

(13,740)

(10,875)

3,885

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(1,546)

(15,196)

(14,375)

(456)

Intangible Amortisation

(2,292)

(2,469)

(3,315)

(2,700)

Exceptionals

(3,439)

(2,915)

(3,373)

(1,837)

Other

(3,021)

(16,305)

(2,500)

(2,500)

Operating Profit

(10,298)

(36,885)

(23,563)

(7,493)

Net Interest

(495)

(3,397)

(9,998)

(3,750)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(2,041)

(18,593)

(24,373)

(4,206)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(10,793)

(40,282)

(33,561)

(11,243)

Tax

215

2,348

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(1,484)

(16,245)

(24,373)

(4,206)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(20,173)

(37,934)

(33,561)

(11,243)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

114.5

114.5

114.5

114.6

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(1.3)

(14.2)

(21.3)

(3.7)

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

(1.2)

(13.6)

(18.6)

(3.1)

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

(17.6)

(33.1)

(29.3)

(9.8)

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

38.1

30.0

28.3

26.8

EBITDA Margin (%)

1.1

-16.9

-6.4

1.4

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

-2.4

-18.7

-8.5

-0.2

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

173,152

160,814

215,766

228,411

Intangible Assets

159,729

157,929

211,881

224,867

Tangible Assets

674

2,195

3,195

2,854

Investments

12,749

690

690

690

Current Assets

 

 

51,423

119,737

111,004

117,310

Stocks

556

408

408

408

Debtors

17,246

25,214

54,400

91,200

Cash

21,078

79,123

41,204

10,710

Other

12,543

14,992

14,992

14,992

Current Liabilities

 

 

(33,518)

(47,067)

(73,974)

(99,830)

Creditors

(24,606)

(47,067)

(73,974)

(99,830)

Short term borrowings

(8,912)

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(19,042)

(89,253)

(139,253)

(139,253)

Long term borrowings

(2,869)

(88,572)

(138,572)

(138,572)

Other long term liabilities

(16,173)

(681)

(681)

(681)

Net Assets

 

 

172,015

144,231

113,543

106,637

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(13,723)

(10,884)

(13,154)

(7,058)

Net Interest

N/A

(1,041)

(9,998)

(3,750)

Tax

N/A

(690)

0

0

Capex

N/A

(6,321)

(4,600)

(4,686)

Acquisitions/disposals

N/A

(10,455)

(60,167)

(15,000)

Financing

N/A

0

0

0

Dividends

N/A

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

N/A

(29,391)

(87,919)

(30,495)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

2,553

(9,297)

9,449

97,368

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

(11,803)

10,645

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(9,297)

9,449

97,368

127,862

Source: RNTS Media accounts (historical numbers), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by RNTS Media and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by RNTS Media and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Martin Currie Asia Unconstrained Trust — Update 3 May 2017

Martin Currie Asia Unconstrained Trust (MCP) adopted Martin Currie’s Asia Long-Term Unconstrained (ALTU) strategy in July 2014, aiming to generate returns in line with Asia-Pacific ex-Japan GDP growth. The trust has consistently traded at a wider discount than its peers, but the differential has recently narrowed following the board’s proposal on 4 April 2017 to increase the dividend meaningfully. Based on MCP’s end-FY17 ex-income NAV, the dividend yield would more than double, lifting the yield to c 4.5%. MCP has outperformed its Asian GDP growth benchmark since adopting the ALTU strategy and over shorter time periods, with particularly strong relative performance over the last 12 months, helped by sterling weakness.

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