On track for FY19

Boku 18 July 2019 Update
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Boku

On track for FY19

H1 trading update

Software & comp services

18 July 2019

Price

129p

Market cap

£323m

$1.25:£

Net cash ($m) at end FY18

28.9

Shares in issue

250.1m

Free float

89.3%

Code

BOKU

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

2.8

9.8

3.6

Rel (local)

0.5

9.3

5.9

52-week high/low

184p

69p

Business description

Boku operates a billing and identity verification platform that connects merchants with mobile network operators in more than 50 countries. It has c 180 employees, with its main offices in the US, UK, Germany and India.

Next events

H119 results

September

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Boku is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Boku’s H1 trading update confirmed continued strong growth in the Payments business and progress in growing the Mobile Identity business. Management’s expectations for FY19 are unchanged; we maintain our forecasts, which assume seasonally stronger payment volumes and a step-up in revenues from the identity business in H219.

Year
end

Revenue ($m)

EBITDA*
($m)

EPS*
($)

DPS
($)

P/E
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

12/17

24.4

(2.3)

(0.03)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/18

35.3

6.3

0.02

0.0

105.6

60.9

12/19e

53.0

9.5

0.02

0.0

89.9

40.5

12/20e

70.0

22.3

0.06

0.0

29.2

17.3

12/21e

80.9

29.7

0.08

0.0

21.2

13.0

Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Strong growth in all metrics in H119

Boku expects to report revenues of $22.5–23.0m for H119 (+c 33% y-o-y), of which 14–16% was contributed by the Mobile Identity business (c $3.2–3.7m). Total payments volume (TPV) for the Payments business grew 49% y-o-y to $2.3bn and monthly active users grew 48% y-o-y to 15.3m. Within the Mobile Identity business, Boku was monitoring 74m phone numbers in June 2019 compared to 12m in December 2018 and processed 140.9m billable transactions in H119 (+100% y-o-y). Gross cash at end H119 stood at $27.8m compared to $32.3m at the end of FY18. Average daily cash in June 2019 was $22.2m compared to $24.4m in December 2018.

Outlook maintained for FY19

The company believes revenue and adjusted EBITDA are on track to meet expectations for FY19, taking into account the typically seasonally stronger H2 and the scaling up of revenues in the Mobile Identity business. We maintain our forecasts. We note that in FY18, H1 revenues made up 48% of annual revenues and H1 TPV 43.6% of annual TPV; using the top end of the expected H1 revenue range, in H119 Boku would generate 43% of our annual revenue forecast and 43.5% of our TPV forecast. The ramp up of the Mobile Identity business through 2019 is the main factor in this increased weighting to H2 and KPIs are so far moving in the right direction.

Valuation: Identity progress key to upside

The stock has gained 83% year to date as in our view, investors have increased confidence that the identity services business is making progress towards FY19 targets. On an EV/EBITDA basis, Boku is trading at a discount to peers in FY20–21e. On a P/E basis, Boku trades at a small premium to peers for FY19–20e, before moving to a small discount in FY21e. Boku’s strong cash generation is reflected in its above-average free cash flow yield for FY20 and FY21. Confirmation of contract extensions and new merchants for the Identity business could drive further upside from this point.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

$'m

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

18.3

19.2

17.2

24.4

35.3

53.0

70.0

80.9

Cost of Sales

(4.1)

(4.0)

(3.2)

(2.3)

(2.5)

(8.8)

(12.4)

(15.0)

Gross Profit

14.2

15.2

14.0

22.1

32.8

44.2

57.6

65.8

EBITDA

 

 

(9.6)

(11.4)

(12.3)

(2.3)

6.3

9.5

22.3

29.7

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(9.8)

(12.4)

(13.8)

(4.0)

4.8

6.8

20.2

27.6

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(0.8)

(1.9)

(1.7)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.0)

Exceptionals

(2.1)

(0.1)

(2.4)

(2.2)

(1.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

(1.7)

(1.8)

(2.1)

(1.5)

(4.6)

(4.7)

(4.7)

(4.7)

Reported operating profit

(14.4)

(16.2)

(19.9)

(9.0)

(2.4)

0.8

14.2

21.8

Net Interest

(0.6)

(0.4)

(1.2)

(2.4)

(0.6)

(0.8)

(0.7)

(0.6)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

(17.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(10.4)

(12.8)

(15.0)

(6.4)

4.3

6.0

19.5

26.9

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(15.0)

(16.6)

(21.1)

(28.5)

(3.0)

(0.0)

13.5

21.2

Reported tax

(0.4)

(0.4)

0.5

(0.1)

(1.3)

0.0

(1.3)

(3.2)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(7.8)

(9.6)

(11.2)

(4.8)

3.4

4.7

15.4

21.3

Profit After Tax (reported)

(15.4)

(17.0)

(20.6)

(28.7)

(4.3)

(0.0)

12.1

18.0

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(7.8)

(9.6)

(11.2)

(4.8)

3.4

4.7

15.4

21.3

Net income (reported)

(15.4)

(17.0)

(20.6)

(28.7)

(4.3)

(0.0)

12.1

18.0

Basic ave.number of shares outstanding (m)

21.3

27.4

140.1

150.3

217.1

238.7

254.5

255.2

EPS - basic normalised ($)

 

 

(0.36)

(0.35)

(0.08)

(0.03)

0.02

0.02

0.06

0.08

EPS - diluted normalised ($)

 

 

(0.36)

(0.35)

(0.08)

(0.03)

0.02

0.02

0.06

0.08

EPS - basic reported ($)

 

 

(0.72)

(0.62)

(0.15)

(0.19)

(0.02)

(0.00)

0.05

0.07

Dividend ($)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

#DIV/0!

4.7

(10.4)

42.0

44.5

50.3

31.9

15.6

Gross Margin (%)

77.6

79.1

81.4

90.7

92.9

83.3

82.3

81.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

(52.5)

(59.2)

(71.4)

(9.5)

17.9

18.0

31.8

36.7

Normalised Operating Margin

(53.2)

(64.4)

(80.0)

(16.5)

13.7

12.9

28.9

34.1

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

32.7

30.8

26.8

26.9

23.0

50.7

47.9

45.8

Intangible Assets

32.5

30.1

25.7

25.8

22.5

47.3

46.1

44.9

Tangible Assets

0.2

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.3

2.7

1.4

0.0

Investments & other

0.0

0.0

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.7

0.5

0.8

Current Assets

 

 

72.5

53.0

48.9

79.3

84.0

102.1

134.7

171.1

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors

59.7

43.3

37.1

59.1

51.7

67.8

80.0

88.5

Cash & cash equivalents

12.0

9.0

11.3

18.7

31.1

33.0

53.5

81.4

Other

0.7

0.6

0.5

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

Current Liabilities

 

 

(69.6)

(65.5)

(61.0)

(78.0)

(79.6)

(95.9)

(108.7)

(117.8)

Creditors

(64.6)

(60.4)

(54.9)

(75.5)

(77.4)

(91.4)

(105.4)

(115.6)

Tax and social security

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Short term borrowings

(5.0)

(5.1)

(6.1)

(2.5)

(2.2)

(4.5)

(3.3)

(2.2)

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

0.0

(0.3)

(15.2)

(0.2)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(1.3)

(3.8)

Long term borrowings

0.0

(0.2)

(15.1)

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

0.0

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(1.3)

(3.8)

Net Assets

 

 

35.5

18.0

(0.4)

28.0

26.6

56.1

72.6

95.3

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

35.5

18.0

(0.4)

28.0

26.6

56.1

72.6

95.3

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(9.6)

(11.4)

(12.3)

(2.3)

6.3

9.5

22.3

29.7

Working capital

9.3

11.6

(3.4)

1.0

7.2

(2.1)

1.9

1.7

Exceptional & other

(1.6)

1.1

4.2

(5.5)

0.2

(0.7)

(0.4)

0.0

Tax

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

0.0

(0.2)

(0.4)

(0.7)

(1.0)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(1.9)

1.3

(11.5)

(6.8)

13.5

6.3

23.1

30.4

Capex

(1.1)

(3.6)

(1.5)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(1.0)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Acquisitions/disposals

5.9

0.3

0.0

0.0

(0.2)

(1.0)

0.0

0.0

Net interest

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.9)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

Equity financing

0.2

0.1

0.1

19.8

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.6

(0.0)

0.1

(1.1)

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

3.3

(2.2)

(13.1)

10.6

13.1

3.7

21.8

29.1

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(4.9)

(7.0)

(3.6)

9.9

(16.2)

(28.9)

(28.5)

(50.2)

FX

(1.2)

(0.8)

(0.4)

0.4

(0.5)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.1)

Other non-cash movements

0.0

(0.4)

(0.0)

15.1

0.0

(3.8)

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(7.0)

(3.6)

9.9

(16.2)

(28.9)

(28.5)

(50.2)

(79.2)

Source: Boku, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by Boku and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Boku. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

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1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

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Level 4, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Boku and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Boku. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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