Not pausing for breath

Vectura Group 26 November 2018 QuickView
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Vectura Group

Not pausing for breath

Pharma & biotech

QuickView

 

26 November 2018

Price

69.30p

Market cap

£461m

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Share details

Code

VEC

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

665.3m

Business description

Vectura Group develops inhaled therapies and devices for the treatment of respiratory diseases like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma. Its products are either licensed to, or are on the market with partners like Novartis, Mundipharma, Bayer and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

Bull

A rare profitable UK speciality pharmaceutical company with a clinical development pipeline.

Technologies in formulation and inhalation devices including dry powder and metered dose inhalers and novel nebulised products.

Branded and generic product partnerships.

Bear

Large markets with generic competition drive prices down.

Meaningful improvement on the standard of care is challenging.

Steady near-term revenues and royalties (with FX translation and wholesaler effects) that may not appeal to the life science investor focused on binary events.

Analyst

Andy Smith

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Building on its positive adjusted H118 EBITDA and its partnerships, Vectura has announced three recent additional developments. Partner Mundipharma received a positive EU opinion for flutiform (46% of H118 revenues) for the treatment of asthma in children, expanding its market from adults and adolescents. The agreement with Hikma to develop generic versions of GSK’s Ellipta brings upfront and milestone payments and ensures Vectura’s participation in the global respiratory disease market irrespective of whether generic or branded products predominate in each market. The failure of VR475 in severe uncontrolled asthma reflects more the difficulty for a non-biologic product to treat these patients.

Financial results underscore profitable partnerships

Vectura reported H118 revenues of £80m, up 1.4% y-o-y, including the inhaled portfolio, which was up 7.1% to £64.7m. Flutiform revenues, which were up 3.1% and comprise 46% of the total, are transitioning to the product supply margin in Europe and royalties from partner Kyorin in Japan. Ellipta revenues were £8.8m of the maximum £9.0m expected in 2018. Adjusted EBITDA was £24.6m (H117: 16.2m), driven mainly by lower amortisation and impairment charges (£45.2m vs £53.3m in H117) but higher exceptional items (£5.7m vs £0.4m in H117). Cash was £83.9m (vs £103.7 at year end 2017) after a £15m share buyback and capex.

Subsector fundamentals: More than just favourable

The development of drugs to treat respiratory diseases is commercially attractive. Many smokers develop the symptoms of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and eventually require drug therapy. This, like Vectura’s products, is often inhaled therapy. Air pollution, and smoking in younger people in southern European and emerging markets will continue to increase the prevalence of asthma and COPD globally. Like COPD, the asthma market is split between branded and generic medicines, and Vectura’s royalties from branded products like GSK’s Ellipta and the recent Hikma collaboration to develop a generic Ellipta illustrates Vectura’s hedged participation at both ends of the branded/generic respiratory value chain. This is further illustrated by Vectura’s existing collaboration with Hikma on an Advair generic, with a launch expected in 2020. The launch of generic Advair has already been incorporated in GSK’s financial guidance.

Valuation: Few mid-cap respiratory peers

A pure-play respiratory franchise with revenue growth, positive EBITDA, a pipeline and an EV of £377m combine to make Vectura a rare investment proposition.

Consensus estimates

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT (£m)

EPS (p)

DPS (p)

P/E (x)

Yield (%)

12/16

126.5

33.4

(5.3)

0.00

N/A

N/A

12/17

148.0

12.0

(12.6)

0.00

N/A

N/A

12/18e

156.5

26.2

(8.9)

0.00

N/A

N/A

12/19e

167.0

37.6

(4.9)

0.00

N/A

N/A

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S estimates. EPS is as reported by GAAP

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United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Neither this Communication nor any copy (physical or electronic) of it may be (i) taken or transmitted into the United States of America, (ii) distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States of America or to any US person (within the meaning of regulations Regulation S made under the US Securities Act 1933, as amended), (iii) taken or transmitted into or distributed in Canada, Australia, the Republic of Ireland or the Republic of South Africa or to any resident thereof, except in compliance with applicable securities laws, (iv) taken or transmitted into or distributed in Japan or to any resident thereof for the purpose of solicitation or subscription or offer for sale of any securities or in the context where the distribution thereof may be construed as such solicitation or offer, or (v) or taken or transmitted into any EEA state other than the United Kingdom. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of the securities laws or the laws of any such jurisdiction. The distribution of this Communication in or into other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and the persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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