Gold production on target, costs within budget

Alkane Resources 1 February 2016 Update

Alkane Resources

Gold production on target, costs within budget

Q216 and H116 results

Metals & mining

1 February 2016

Price

A$0.22

Market cap

A$91m

US$/A$0.70

Net cash (A$m) at end December 2015

14.8

Shares in issue

414.2m

Free float

74%

Code

ALK

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

OTCQX

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(4.4)

(10.4)

(12.2)

Rel (local)

(0.1)

(4.2)

(3.7)

52-week high/low

A$0.4

A$0.2

Business description

Alkane Resources is a multi-commodity explorer and developer, with projects in the central west region of New South Wales in Australia. It owns the Tomingley Gold Operation and DZP rare metal and rare earths projects (both 100%). TGO entered production in January 2014 and DZP is currently planned for first production during FY18.

Next event

Q316 results

April 2016

Analysts

Tom Hayes

+44 (0)20 3077 5725

Charles Gibson

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

Alkane Resources is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Alkane reports a second cash flow-positive quarter after the high amounts of waste required to be mined during H215 made the TGO cash flow negative. Gold production remains on track for 60-70koz by end FY16, with AISC costs in a range of A$1,200-1,300/oz ytd. Costs compare to an Australian dollar gold price of c A$1,570/oz. Progress on developing the DZP is also highlighted, with the key mining lease achieved during the quarter. We maintain our view that the DZP, through its diversified product suite and very advanced stage of engineering and product offtake arrangements, remains the strongest non-Chinese contender for exposure to the strategically important REE (and other speciality metals) space.

Year end

Revenue (A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/14

35.5

3.4

(0.4)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/15

101.8

0.1

1.0

0.0

22.0

N/A

06/16e

101.6

(6.5)

(1.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/17e

101.5

(19.5)

(1.8)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. DZP revenues and capex delayed by one year to FY18.

TGO: AISC costs up q-o-q, but guidance still intact

During Q216 the TGO produced 15,347ozs (Q1: 19,789ozs) of gold at an AISC production cost of A$1,316/oz, up 6.6% over Q116 (A$1,234/oz) and sold 14,250ozs at an average gold price of A$1,583/oz (Q1: 21,000ozs at an average gold price of A$1,565/oz). Revenues continue to be aided by the US$/A$ exchange, which saw the A$ strengthen 4.2% from US$0.70 to US$0.73 during Q216. The TGO post-development capex and opex maintained positive cash flow of A$2.45m. Alkane’s FY16 guidance of 60-70koz of gold produced remains intact (we forecast 69koz), with H116 gold production totalling 35,136ozs.

DZP: financing news to follow next few quarters

The DZP mining lease was awarded during the quarter and land purchases totalling A$3.7m were also made, in our view highlighting Alkane’s confidence in financing the project. The DZP continues to be advanced, whether due to finalising offtake agreements or the significant background engineering works being undertaken by early contractor involvement partner, Outotec. All the while, juniors centred on REE project development contracts, leaving REE offtakers with even fewer options.

Valuation: TGO underground assumptions refined

We adjust our valuation for H116 TGO production data. We also refine our existing TGO underground (UG) production schedule such that its 62koz UG reserve base is fully exhausted, as well as mining inferred material and processing low-grade stockpiles from FY18-22. We have also pushed out our DZP financing and capex assumptions one year to FY17 to allow Alkane to finalise its financing arrangements for this project. In addition, we include A$20m in UG development capex funded under our current assumption purely via bank debt. On this basis, our fully-diluted valuation at a 10% discount rate is A$1.09 (previously A$1.13, see page 5).

Progress continues unabated

Back during the rare earth bubble of 2011, while the market was in hot pursuit of exposure to rare earth elements (REEs), Alkane’s strategy to develop a A$1,000/oz (C3-equivalent) gold mine was met with some scepticism in the market. Now, five years later, Alkane’s gold mine provides it with cash without diluting its shareholders, to invest not only in extending that mines life and exploring its highly prospective land packages nearby, but also providing pre-development investment into its flagship DZP.

Other than for exploration activities (which, though certainly worthwhile progressing, we view as non-core in the current market), the following sections provide development highlights relating to the TGO and DZP.

TGO – UG development to start by end CY16 (end H117)

A maiden underground reserve estimate of 61.6koz of gold has been declared for the TGO, paving the way for our long-held assumption for the underground mining phase at the project. Alkane’s financial assessment indicates that an additional 47.7koz of inferred gold should be extracted, which are incidental to mining the reserves. This is supported by empirical data from the existing open-pit mine of the same deposits that indicate conversion of 100% of inferred ounces to mineable reserves, as well as the fact that the TGO mined an additional 41% of gold ounces at Wyoming Three, compared to the initial resource block model.

Since the TGO DFS was completed on the Wyoming One, Wyoming Three and Caloma deposits in 2010, which stated an initial 7.5-year mine life extracting c 369koz of gold, Alkane has drilled and added further ounces at the Caloma Two deposit to its resource inventory. Coupled with Caloma Two resources and these new underground reserves, the TGO’s mine life should now be in excess of 10 years at current production rates. Further expansion of the UG resource/reserve base is likely as and when drilling can take place from more advantageous drill positions underground.

Underground funding via debt – no dilution at current share price levels

Alkane will initiate the underground development phase of the TGO by end CY16 pending successful debt funding of the initial development capex of A$20m. The company states that in the current market, raising equity will not take place unless a significant uptick in its share price occurs. Our DDF model demonstrates positive cash flows are maintained with this debt included at current gold prices and costs of production levels. This scenario has been performed without any DZP funding assumptions included.

Exhibit 1: Revised life-of-mine TGO gold production profile (FY16-22e)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Alkane guides that first UG production will commence nine months after the start of developing a portal from the Caloma open pit and last for 2.75 years or 33 months. However, as stated above, production is likely to continue beyond this time frame, which is based solely on defined JORC-compliant ore reserves. We have therefore taken a view based on the fact that open-pit production has exceeded geostatistical resource estimates as a key reason to include mining a further 48koz of gold. This is the amount of gold Alkane has estimated in the inferred category for the UG mine phase, but which for regulatory reasons it has not been able to include in its UG mine plans. Based on the UG mine producing 20koz of gold pa, the 48koz of inferred gold extends the UG phase by a little over two years. Therefore, in our assumptions we forecast UG mining to extend to FY22. We expect Alkane to make use of far more advantageous drill positions to delineate further UG reserves as and when these positons become available for use. Our new TGO life-of-mine gold production profile is given in Exhibit 1.

The following exhibit details ytd production and cost metrics for the TGO, plus our forecasts quarter-by-quarter to year end.

Exhibit 2: TGO H116 actual and forecast H216 production, stockpile and cost data

Production

Q116

Q216

Q316e

Q416e

FY16e

Waste mined

BCM

1,676,850

1,447,753

1,895,545

1,895,545

6,915,693

Implied strip ratio

waste:ore

3.78

5.23

12.61

12.61

7.6

Ore mined

Tonnes

443,744

277,061

225,553

225,553

1,171,910

Ore grade

g/t

1.87

1.84

1.86

1.86

1.86

Ore milled

Tonnes

271,980

257,998

320,966

320,966

1,171,910

Head grade

g/t

2.44

1.93

2.19

2.19

2.19

Recovery

%

92.6%

91.4%

92.0%

92.0%

92.0%

Gold recovered

Ounces

19,789

15,347

17,395

17,395

69,926

Gold sold

Ounces

21,000

14,250

15,000

14,750

65,000

Gold revenue

A$m

32.9

22.6

23.2

23.0

101.6

Implied realised gold price/ actual

A$/oz

1,565

1,583

1,545

1,557

1,563

Cost of sales

A$m

21.85

17.89

20.28

20.28

80.31

AISC operating cost

A$/oz

1,234

1,316

1,250

1,250

1,263

Gross margin

%

26.8%

20.3%

23.6%

24.6%

23.8%

Operating profit margin

%

50.6%

26.3%

14.3%

13.2%

26.1%

Stockpiles and bullion on hand

Ore for immediate milling

Tonnes

678,681

698,744

698,744

698,744

698,744

Bullion on hand

Ounces

1,951

3,040

3,040

3,040

3,040

Value of bullion on hand (based on implied gold price above)

A$m

3.05

4.81

4.81

4.81

4.81

Stockpile grade

g/t Au

0.95

0.94

0.94

0.94

0.94

Contained gold in stockpiles

oz

20,735

21,155

21,155.0

21,155.0

21,155

Value of stockpiled gold ounces at quarter's average price

A$m

32.5

33.5

33.5

33.5

33.49

Detailed cost summary

Mining

A$/oz

784

731

731

731

744

Processing

A$/oz

242

322

322

322

302

Site support

A$/oz

78

113

113

113

104

C1 site cash costs

A$/oz

1,104

1,166

1,166

1,166

1,151

Royalties

A$/oz

46

43

43

43

44

Sustaining capital

A$/oz

36

44

44

44

42

Rehabilitation

A$/oz

16

20

20

20

19

Corporate

A$/oz

32

43

43

43

40

AISC

A$/oz

1,234

1,316

1,316

1,316

1,296

Source: Alkane Resources, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2 above demonstrates that if the current run rate of gold production at the TGO persists until year end, it would likely result in gold production at the top end of Alkane’s 60-70koz range. Also, if production costs were to be maintained at Q216 levels (A$1,316/oz), it would still manage to bring its average AISC production cost just within budget at A$1,296/oz (Alkane’s guidance on AISC costs for FY16 is A$1,200-1,300/oz).

However, we note that, based on our forecasts above, the milled head grade would need to increase 13% from Q216 levels but, considering the average for the TGO so far is 2.11g/t, we do not consider this a major concern and Alkane’s site management should be able to achieve its stated gold production target through managing throughput (ie tonnage milled) if the gold grade persists at Q216 levels.

The following exhibit is a graphical representation of historical production volumes and grades at the TGO from the start of mining during Q214 through to Q216, plus our estimates for Q3-Q416, to achieve a gold production target of 69koz, with 65koz of gold sold.

Exhibit 3: TGO production volumes by area plus grade data from mining start-up in Q214

Source: Alkane Resources, Edison Investment Research

DZP – land purchases and engineering works advance

Alkane continues to advance the DZP in terms of pre-development engineering designs, commercialising its memoranda of understanding and purchasing land required to develop the DZP. The main points of progress are:

Major mining services company Outotec is involved in discussions with Alkane over equipment supply, technology application and construction methodology. This early contractor involvement (ECI) is a known advanced step in pre-developing a mining project, is crucial to making sure that all critical path elements are properly optimised before financing, and allows for the main procurement and construction phases to start.

Financing arrangements (undertaken by Alkane’s wholly owned subsidiary Australian Zirconia, AZL) are said to be continuing and, if a 2018 production start is still to be met, we would expect some more concrete newsflow on financing participants for the DZP’s A$1.3bn initial development capex to occur through the rest of 2016. This is obviously the key risk to the successful development of the DZP. Alkane maintains that financing will involve a mixture of debt, equity, strategic partner involvement and Export Credit Agency funding. We delay the timing of our assumed A$194m net equity raise (at a share price of A$0.30) from FY16 to FY17. Please see our October 2015 update note for further details on this issue.

Work on the hafnium recovery circuit has continued, along with corresponding improvements in zirconia quality. The improved zirconia product specifications are being finalised and communicated with potential offtakers.

Refining the toll treatment of the REE concentrates into separated REE oxides also continued during the quarter.

Alkane made progress on Zirconium marketing with a leading European manufacturing and trading company. This centred around the conversion of the existing memorandum of understanding into an agreement for marketing all of the DZP’s zirconium products on a worldwide basis.

Valuation – down to capex (UG and DZP rescheduling)

We adjust our valuation for H116 TGO production data. We also refine our existing underground production schedule such that both Alkane’s announced 62koz UG reserve base is fully exhausted from H218 to FY20, along with current stockpile levels blended in with this and open-pit ore during the same time period. We also note that UG gold production is likely to be above modelled estimates – akin to current open-pit ROM to reserve reconciliations. We also include A$20m in UG development capex funded under our current assumption purely via bank debt and push out DZP financing and capex assumptions to FY17 (previously FY16) to account for Alkane’s ongoing DZP financing negotiations. On this basis, our fully diluted SOTP valuation at a 10% discount rate is A$1.02. Exhibit 4 below details the breakdown of this SOTP valuation and compares it to our previous valuation, published in our October 2015 update note.

Exhibit 4: Edison SOTP valuations, October 2015 and January 2016

Asset

Oct 2015 (A$/share)

Jan 2016 (A$/share)

TGO

0.15

0.15

DZP

0.94

0.90

Cash

0.04

0.04

Total

1.13

1.09

Source: Edison Investment Research

Our valuation is based on a dividend discount approach and therefore discounts all free cash from operations in the form of theoretical dividend payments using a 10% discount rate to reflect general equity risk. Our DDF-based model includes Alkane’s current financing strategy for the DZP (see our October 2015 update note), as well as debt funding for the TGO UG phase and a new DZP working capital facility totalling A$4m (see following financials section for our treatment of these items).

Note that the above valuation is post-dilution. If the DZP is not successfully developed and we remove all financing assumptions and dilution for this project, Alkane’s shares, based on gold production from the TGO only, are worth A$0.36.

Financials

Alkane’s cash position at end H116 was A$14.764m. We expect gold production to come in at the top of its 60-70koz gold production target at end FY16 and we forecast AISC costs to be at the upper end of guidance at A$1,296/oz. We forecast total FY16 exploration expenditure (which includes DZP development expenditures) of A$8.0m (H116: A$4.0m) and include A$3.7m in land purchases and a A$4m working capital facility (treated as debt, repaid over five years starting in FY19, bearing 10%) relating to the DZP. We also include A$20m in UG development capex for the TGO and assume this is met by debt repaid over five years bearing 10%, starting in FY19 as UG production is firmly bedded down.

On this basis, we estimate that Alkane will finish FY16 with cash of A$18.5m.

Note that our end FY17e net debt position (A$517m) has reduced materially from the A$928m in our last note (published in October 2015). This is due to delaying all financing assumptions for the DZP by one year to FY17, with first production resulting in maiden DZP revenues starting in FY18 (previously FY17). This is in line with Alkane’s current DZP project development timeline.

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

A$'000s

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 30 June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

100,753

35,474

101,813

100,783

101,520

Cost of Sales

0

(25,692)

(74,809)

(80,307)

(63,131)

Gross Profit

100,753

9,782

27,004

20,477

38,389

EBITDA

 

 

88,339

3,890

26,478

20,254

38,211

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

88,172

3,890

(79)

(6,676)

(19,681)

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals/discontinued

(99,024)

(4,798)

(8,211)

0

100,000

Other

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(10,852)

(908)

(8,290)

(6,676)

80,319

Net Interest

4,980

(471)

153

223

178

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

93,152

3,419

74

(6,453)

(19,503)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(5,872)

(1,379)

(8,137)

(6,453)

80,497

Tax

5,989

(4,893)

4,051

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

99,141

(1,372)

4,125

(6,453)

(19,503)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

117

(6,272)

(4,086)

(6,453)

80,497

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

354.6

373.7

413.4

414.2

1,061.6

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

28.0

(0.4)

1.0

(1.6)

(1.8)

EPS - FRS 3 (c)

 

 

0.0

(1.7)

(1.0)

(1.6)

7.6

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

100.0

27.6

26.5

20.3

37.8

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

75,365

160,174

162,624

148,113

969,170

Intangible Assets

45,278

53,406

65,251

73,251

81,251

Tangible Assets

21,093

100,032

89,787

67,276

880,333

Investments

8,994

6,736

7,586

7,586

7,586

Current Assets

 

 

109,057

40,811

28,394

37,326

15,555

Stocks

0

15,391

11,505

8,380

8,445

Debtors

3,680

4,906

1,988

7,055

7,110

Cash

64,294

15,569

14,901

21,891

0

Other available for sale financial assets

41,083

4,945

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(9,590)

(14,726)

(11,251)

(8,126)

(523,415)

Creditors

(7,735)

(13,755)

(9,726)

(6,601)

(5,189)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

(516,701)

Other

(1,855)

(971)

(1,525)

(1,525)

(1,525)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(135)

(12,039)

(9,265)

(9,265)

(9,265)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(135)

(12,039)

(9,265)

(9,265)

(9,265)

Net Assets

 

 

174,697

174,220

170,502

168,049

452,046

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(12,823)

(3,508)

28,454

15,186

36,679

Net Interest

4,980

(369)

153

223

178

Tax

5,989

0

0

0

0

Capex

(57,777)

(95,281)

(32,588)

(12,419)

(878,949)

Acquisitions/disposals

10,329

40,534

3,151

0

100,000

Financing

102,566

9,800

214

4,000

203,500

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

53,264

(48,824)

(616)

6,990

(538,591)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(11,026)

(64,294)

(15,569)

(14,901)

(21,891)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

4

99

(52)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(64,294)

(15,569)

(14,901)

(21,891)

516,701

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: We forecast DZP financing capex starting in FY17 including the planned sale of 10% of the DZP for A$100m recorded on the P&L. Assumes capital raise of A$194m via the issue of 647m shares at A$0.30 each.

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Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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