Core businesses continue strong growth

Banca IFIS 3 November 2015 Update

Banca IFIS

Core businesses continue strong growth

Q315 results

Banks

3 November 2015

Price

€22.45

Market cap

€1,188m

Net debt/cash (£m)

n/m

Shares in issue

52.9m

Free float

35.4%

Code

IF

Primary exchange

Borsa Italiana
Star segment

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

12.5

11.9

72.1

Rel (local)

6.4

16.0

46.0

52-week high/low

€23.24

€12.67

Business description

Banca IFIS’s core business is financing Italian SME trade receivables and non-performing loans. There are modest operations in Romania, Hungary and Poland. The Italian government bond portfolio is now less than 10% of net profit from financial activities.

Next event

FY15 results

February 2016

Analysts

Mark Thomas

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Banca IFIS is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The group’s strategy to replace bond profits with flows from sustainable business operations continues to be delivered, broadly speaking. Strong growth in the core trade receivables business and in the distressed loans operation meant the group net profit from financial activities fell just €2m to €57m (Q315 vs Q314) despite a €13m reduction in bond portfolio contribution. The bond portfolio contributed less than 10% of group’s net profit from financial activities (Q314 33%). Costs were well controlled.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/13

264.2

143.3

161.2

57.0

13.9

2.5

12/14

280.9

144.9

179.8

65.0

12.5

2.9

12/15e

391.5

253.7

311.7

70.0

7.2

3.1

12/16e

278.3

138.8

168.1

80.0

13.4

3.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q315 results

Credit was a noticeable highlight in Q315. Impairments were €1.4m better than our forecast, continuing the recent excellent trend. The core trade business reported impairments of just €1.3m in the quarter on its €2.7bn loan book. As expected, the DRL unit reported net recoveries. Costs were slightly better than expected, rising 16% with investment. Q315 net interest income (€47.9m against our forecast €52.5m) missed our estimate primarily due to a €5m lower than expected NII in the bond portfolio. Critically, this was offset with an equity gain of €14.5m in revaluation reserves which we had previously not forecast – both the lower NII and capital gain driven by lower market interest rates. Fee income was a small miss.

In terms of net profit from financial activities, the divisional results were strong across all business units: Trade Receivables was €40.4m (up 35% on Q314); the Distressed Retail Loans segment €10.7m (up 79%); tax receivables €3.8m (down 3% on an unusually high Q314, up 38% for 9M15 on 9M14); and the Governance and Services segment €2.4m (compared with €19.5m largely due to significant bond portfolio profits taken as a capital gain on its restructuring earlier in 2015).

Outlook

There has been a modest reduction in interest from the bond portfolio reducing income. Costs have been trimmed to reflect the Q315 performance. We have also modestly cut our credit impairments given the continued excellent performance on this line. Overall, our 2016 adjusted PBT and EPS see a modest uplift.

Valuation: Building in 2017 growth

The average of our valuation approaches is now €20.3 (previously €19.9). We believe the market valuation (c 5% higher than our valuation) is recognising probable growth beyond our forecast period (2016e) and is not unreasonable given the franchises currently being built.

Core SME receivables

Exhibit 1: Trade receivable quarterly trends

(€000s)

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

Net interest income

21,823

25,073

21,479

23,956

24,753

22,922

26,386

Commission

15,643

16,079

15,942

15,566

14,581

15,019

15,282

Net banking income

37,466

41,152

37,421

39,522

39,334

37,941

41,668

Net impairment

(9,119)

(13,328)

(7,571)

(2,988)

(5,525)

(7,925)

(1,307)

Net result of financial operation

28,347

27,824

29,850

36,534

33,809

30,016

40,361

Non-performing loans

157,988

152,273

124,638

112,628

111,445

119,848

134,803

Performing loans

1,750,226

2,008,386

2,018,641

2,342,424

2,379,901

2,497,310

2,523,925

Total loans

1,908,214

2,160,659

2,143,279

2,455,052

2,491,346

2,617,158

2,658,728

Turnover

1,655,420

2,144,749

1,999,885

2,512,744

2,142,254

2,504,445

2,607,907

NBI to turnover (%)

2.26

1.9%

1.87

1.57

1.84

1.51

1.60

 

Net bad loans/loans

2.4

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.3

Coverage ratio on gross bad loans

80.6

83.8

86.6

86.6

86.4

87.2

86.7

NPLs as % total loans

8.28

7.05

5.82

4.59

4.47

4.58

5.07

WRAs

1,561,330

1,632,846

1,638,571

1,802,978

1,820,654

1,913,311

1,905,555

Average weighting

82%

76%

76%

73%

73%

73%

72%

Annual NII as % average loans

4.54%

4.93%

3.99%

4.17%

4.00%

3.59%

4.00%

 

Receivables with recourse €m

132

143

130

201

178

208

172

Receivables without recourse

1,904

2,034

1,926

2,000

2,033

2,167

2,119

Outright purchases

507

724

679

900

906

937

1,051

Total receivables

2,543

2,901

2,735

3,101

3,117

3,313

3,343

Of which public administration

883

1,045

941

1,059

1,079

1,127

1,188

% total to public

35

36

34

34

35

34

36

Source: Banca IFIS, Edison Investment Research

The key messages are:

Net interest income record levels: NII was up on Q215 with a recovery in margin from 3.6% to 4.0%. Q215 has suffered from a campaign targeted at the pharmacy sector, which resulted in less income being recognised upfront but interest accrued on late payments. By Q315 this timing lag had significantly matured, resulting in margins reverting to historic levels.

While overall outstanding receivables growth was modest, the pharma business saw receivables managed rise by 170% on Q314 to €1.3bn, reflecting business won by the team hired earlier in 2015. More receivables were bought outright than in the past, changing the mix of receivables (per Exhibit 1). We note that turnover increased by 4% on Q215. Management has reiterated its confidence in unchanged lending estimates with Q415 growth supported by a full-period benefit of staff hires including the pharma team.

Impairments are by their nature irregular, but Q315 was an exceptionally low €1.3m, 79bp of lending. The underlying credit metrics have improved markedly since Q114 with net bad loans to loans nearly halving and coverage improving. In Q315 we note there have been a limited number of large loans that have moved to non-performing status. These are exposures backed by the public sector, and while the accounting definition means they are classified as past due, the expected cash flows means that no provisioning is required against these exposures. Bad loans and unlikely to pay exposures totalled €77m, unchanged on Q215.

Outlook

We estimate divisional total loans will rise to €2.8bn by the end of 2015 and €3.6bn by end 2016 (unchanged as noted above). The €0.2bn, 7% increase in Q415 may prove conservative and is a slower rate of growth than seen in Q414 (€0.3bn, up 15% on Q314) and in Q314 (€0.2bn up 9%).

We expect strong growth in the pharma business. On 17 June, IFIS announced the development of a new niche operation to provide finance to the more than 15,000 pharmacies across Italy. It has hired a team of nine specialists, including two credit analysts, who have had relationships with about one-third of this market, and is aiming to initially gain about 500 new pharmacy clients a year. The group will provide not only short-term factoring, but also-medium-term financing.

We expect further steady volume growth in the core business. Management indicates that there has been some competitive pricing pressure on medium and larger corporate customers, but this has not been seen in the smaller and micro enterprise market. IFIS had already been expanding in this area as a way to protect profitability as the Italian government speeded up its payments to suppliers.

The lead credit indicators all continue to be positive but management indicates repeating Q315 levels will be challenging – an annual loss rate of 1% of loans (against 0.79% in Q315) would be regarded as a good result.

Distressed retail loan (DRL)

Exhibit 2: DRL key quarterly trends

(€000s)

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

Interest income from amortised cost

6,294

6,597

7,266

6,518

6,036

6,317

6,348

Other interest income from change in CF

1,259

706

884

960

1,988

6,492

5,450

Funding cost

(951)

(941)

(1,081)

(1,054)

(584)

(719)

(1,095)

Net interest income

6,602

6,362

7,069

6,424

7,440

12,090

10,703

Commission & other income

0

0

0

3,581

(10)

(78)

(304)

Net Banking income

6,602

6,362

7,069

10,005

7,430

12,012

10,399

Impairments / recoveries

639

715

(1,110)

1,197

1,429

(678)

277

Net result of financial operation

7,241

7,077

5,959

11,202

8,859

11,334

10,676

Non-performing loans

128,461

134,700

166,816

135,426

148,943

220,429

261,874

Performing loans

0

0

0

3

13

6

15

Total loans

128,461

134,700

166,816

135,429

148,956

220,435

261,889

Nominal value of receivables

3,905,350

4,100,574

5,368,725

5,630,151

5,778,594

6,823,237

7,486,687

Book value as % nominal

3.29

3.28

3.11

2.41

2.58

3.23

3.50

Total RWA per sector

128,461

134,700

166,816

135,426

148,956

220,429

261,889

NII as % average bal sheet (annualised)

20.6

19.3

18.8

17.0

20.9

26.2

17.8

NII as % average nominal (annualised)

0.68

0.64

0.60

0.47

0.52

0.77

0.60

Source: Banca IFIS, Edison Investment Research

The key messages from the DRL division are:

Net interest income: Management indicated at the Q215 results that it expected the jump in NII seen in that quarter to be largely sustainable. While Q315 was 13% down on this record level, it is still 58% above the average seen Q114 to Q115. An element of NII in this division is based off cash received and in August there is a seasonal effect with lower actual payments during the holiday season (2014 did not show this effect given the mix of business being restructured early that year).

In Q315 there were net impairment credits from the division. We expect positive adjustments in most quarters as a core aspect of the business model is making recoveries and we expect the company to be conservative.

There has been a small increase in book value as a percentage of nominal value, with the new acquisitions at c 6% being priced above historic deals.

Outlook

In June 2015, IFIS announced the acquisition of three portfolios and on 4 August announced two further deals. We believe that IFIS's acquisitions will create further economies of scale, collection rates are rising faster than market prices, improving economic returns, and IFIS has the infrastructure to make further acquisitions. The additional c 100k positions took the IFIS portfolio to 883k accounts at the end of September 2015. We understand the existing infrastructure allows the bank to contact more than one million customers per year, meaning that the recently announced deals are well within current operational parameters. We understand further capacity is likely to be added. The tone of management commentary was that there are currently significant numbers of acquisition opportunities across a range of sources and further deals are thus likely.

Tax receivables

The tax receivables division has shown good growth on 2014 through 9M15. Specific periods may be affected by the timing of receivable repayments (Q314 unusually high), but the trend is positive.

Exhibit 3: Tax receivables – key quarterly trends

€000s

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

Net interest income

2,057

2,203

3,872

2,871

3,858

3,621

4,001

Commission & other income

107

0

(107)

0

44

0

(17)

Net banking income

2,164

2,203

3,765

2,871

3,902

3,621

3,984

Impairments/recoveries

98

(173)

195

146

58

(44)

(140)

Net result of financial operation

2,262

2,030

3,960

3,017

3,960

3,577

3,844

Non-performing loans

522

592

0

34

0

0

0

Performing loans

100,938

114,542

114,352

119,439

123,844

114,293

129,978

Total loans

101,460

115,134

114,352

119,473

123,844

114,293

129,978

Nominal value of receivables

152,751

175,762

157,708

167,834

176,916

163,104

179,762

Book value as % nominal

66.42

65.51

72.51

71.19

70.00

70.07

72.31

Total WRA per sector

30,090

34,162

33,687

37,595

34,062

36,313

41,339

Average weighting as % book

30

30

29

31

28

32

32

Source: Banca IFIS, Edison Investment Research

Governance and services

Historically, bond profits have been a key driver to Banca IFIS results. This is no longer the case (now less than 10% of net result from financial operations) and we expect less focus on this issue in future.

We understand the portfolio is currently being funded at -12bp (after -15bp in Q215 and showing IFIS is making a profit on its funding), which is unsustainable in the long term. Through the money markets, banks are willing to lend to IFIS at a loss because it is a lower loss than they would incur by depositing their funds directly with the ECB. Our estimates assume that funding will be at zero for the forecast period and that the Q2/Q315 benefit will not recur. We also assume no market movements and no impairments in this division.

Our forecast net interest income has been reduced from previous estimates. While the redemption yield on acquisition in April was 1.3%, market movements have seen interest rates fall since that date. While this has not affected coupon receipts, it does affect the interest income earned from unwinding discounts to maturity. There is a capital gain reported in equity changes under the AFS securities valuation reserve (Q215-on-Q315 gain €14.5m).

The G&S division in Q314 also included a €4m (50%) write-down on the investment in Popolare di Vincenza. The stake was taken around five years ago. Q215 and Q115 saw write-downs of the Indian factoring business. We assume no further write-downs in future periods.

Exhibit 4: G&S quarterly trends

€000s

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

Net interest income

24,304

25,084

20,854

18,431

20,626

15,477

6,796

Commission

(1,184)

(1,163)

(1,333)

(665)

(126)

(63)

(249)

Dividend and net result from trading

124,536

(179)

Net banking income

23,120

23,921

19,521

17,766

20,500

139,950

6,368

Impairments/recoveries

0

0

0

(2,019)

(2,214)

(4,016)

Net result of financial operation

23,120

23,921

19,521

17,766

18,481

137,736

2,352

Total loans

201,528

127,878

163,562

104,376

157,756

154,413

141,663

Total WRA per sector

230,165

242,171

207,304

187,560

150,757

154,413

141,663

Average weighting as % book

114

189

127

180

96

77

140

Source: Banca IFIS, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 5: Key statistics for the AFS and HTM portfolios

Q112

Q212

Q312

Q412

Q113

Q213

Q313

Q413

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

Government portfolio size (€bn)

3.8

4.2

4.4

5.1

7.4

7.7

7.0

8.4

7.6

6.4

5.5

5.1

5.1

3.8

3.6

Unrecognised gain (€m)

37.4

20.4

54.0

74.5

14.7

35.9

21.3

92.6

159.9

169.0

168.0

133.7

0

0

0

% portfolio <1 year

56

37

52

37

35

43

45

40

34*

21*

48*

44

41

23**

20%**

Banca IFIS equity base (€m)

262

258

284

309

332

331

358

380

405

398

418

438

572

524

557

Portfolio as multiple of equity (x)

15

17

16

16

23

23

20

22

19

16

13

12

9

7

6

Source: Banca IFIS, Edison Investment Research. Note: *To end-2014; **to end-2015.

Funding and capital

Historically, IFIS had raised surplus deposits through its internet offering. In 2014 this portfolio was repriced (from best in class) and the average funding is now around 1.25%. IFIS also pays the stamp duty (0.2%) and has indicated that further pricing improvements could only be achieved by risking significant volumes. We have been surprised by the portfolio's relative resilience during this repricing. We understand that the vast majority of term deposits have now been repriced and management is looking to ensure deposits will grow again and broadly match the loan book. We understand new term products have been launched to stimulate demand. In Q315 we saw a modest growth in deposits (up €17m), in line with the management’s stated strategy.

Exhibit 6: Customer deposits and loans (€m)

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

rendimax and contomax

3,947

3,796

3,637

3,314

3,072

2,930

2,947

Loans

2,340

2,538

2,588

2,814

2,922

3,152

3,176

Source: Banca IFIS, Edison Investment Research

Valuation

We use approaches that are based on long-term assumptions and our current forecast period (two years). For a company such as IFIS this is somewhat unfair as we expect meaningful increases in profit beyond this current forecast period. In 2017 we expect lower headwinds from falling bond profits, which means that core business profit (which grew 33% in 2013 and 39% in 2014) is more likely to drop down to the group bottom line. Additionally, a number of its initiatives such as expanding the pharma business will only see full-period benefits in 2017, and the acquisitions in the distressed loan divisions are also likely to have a much greater impact in that year. We have in any case been conservative in our assumptions, with core business profit growth well below recent experience. The average of our valuation approaches is now €20.3 (previously €19.9) driven by modest forecast upgrades.

Peer comparisons

As we have noted in our previous reports, IFIS does not have any immediate peers in terms of business model. The recently floated Banca Sistema (BST.IM) is the closest comparator, but it only came to market in early July 2015. Investors wishing to consider smaller Italian banks may look at Banca Finnat (BFE.IM), Banca Popolare dell’Etruria e del Lazio (PEL.IM), Banco di Desio e della Brianza (BDB.IM) and Credito Valtellinese (CVAL.IM). In terms of trade finance plays, there is also Tungsten in the UK (TUNG.LN). Looking at comparisons with these banks, we need to bear in mind their very different operations, capital and funding structures.

Gordon’s growth model

As a specialist house in a niche area of financing, and with a material element of service income that does not attract the same regulatory capital requirement as lending, we believe IFIS should generate returns above its cost of capital. For the purposes of our valuation, we have assumed a sustained ROE of 15% against a cost of capital of 12% (including a premium for Italian risk, which may be expected to reduce over time). We have assumed long-term growth of 4%, around nominal GDP, generating an expected price-to-book of 1.4x. We have increased our near-term premium from 10% to 30% to better capture the core business growth continuing into 2017 and remaining well ahead of our assumed growth of 4%. While our 2016e ROE is in line with our long-term forecast, higher earnings into 2017 may also be expected to see the ROE above our long-term assumption. This increases our valuation to €21.07 from €20.91 previously with the increase in equity from the revaluation reserve and small earnings upgrades.

Exhibit 7: Gordon’s growth model and sensitivity

 

Base

1% ROE

1% growth

1% COE

ROE

15.0%

16.0%

15.0%

15.0%

Growth

4.0%

4.0%

5.0%

4.0%

COE

12.0%

12.0%

12.0%

13.0%

P/B

1.38

1.50

1.43

1.22

2016 NAV (c)

1,179

1,179

1,179

1,179

Implied fair value (c)

1,621

1,768

1,684

1,441

Premium for near-term performance (%)

0

0

0

0

Performance implied fair value (c)

2,107

2,298

2,189

1,873

Difference (c)

192

82

(234)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Dividend discount model

We take explicit forecasts for 2015 and 2016. For 2017 we make two adjustments: firstly we make a step change in dividend payout to 73% (reflecting our long-term return on equity of 15%, but growth in equity of 4%). This is unchanged from our previous approach; secondly, we have introduced an incremental 2017 growth of 25% to reflect core business growth in that year carrying on at average historic/forecast rates. We have introduced this new premium to try and capture growth beyond our forecast period. Beyond that we continue to grow this dividend at the expected 4% rate for 10 years. These cash flows are discounted at cost of capital (12%). We also make an upfront payout to bring the initial core Tier 1 down to 10% (value €4.0 per share). This approach indicates a value of €19.5 (previously €18.9).

Financials

Exhibit 8: Changes to estimates

Revenue (€m)

PBT (€m)

EPS (c)

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2015e

401.2

391.5

(2)

256.1

253.7

(1)

315.9

311.7

(1)

2016e

287.7

278.3

(3)

133.3

138.8

4

161.6

168.1

4

Source: Edison Investment Research

The net effect of our forecast changes on 2016 is a small upgrade to PBT and EPS forecasts. Revenue has been reduced primarily for the lower interest income on the bond portfolio with a gain in equity in Q315 reflecting the same driver. Our cost assumptions show a small reduction and the continued investment in the group sees the cost income ratio returning to levels seen before the distortion from the bond portfolio. This implies a further deterioration from the level expected in 2015 and we note that our forecasts are conservative with the company targeting a cost income ratio of less than 40%. We have reduced impairments in 2016e from €22.0m to €21m, reflecting continued positive trends in the core business and assumed recoveries in the distressed loans business. We have assumed no recurrence of the €8m AVS impairments expected in 2015. Our bottom-line 2016e ROE of 15% is in line with management guidance.

Exhibit 9: Financial summary – profit and loss (€000s)

Year-end 31 December

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015e

2016e

Gross interest income

55,733

74,532

55,898

64,084

106,092

289,480

345,747

311,727

285,000

295,000

Interest expense

(35,587)

(47,190)

(33,727)

(36,791)

(63,847)

(110,475)

(139,003)

(93,263)

(77,215)

(83,134)

Net interest income

20,146

27,342

22,171

27,293

42,245

179,005

206,744

218,464

207,785

211,866

Net fees & commissions

31,023

38,997

52,278

66,844

78,788

65,420

57,164

58,352

59,236

66,402

Dividends and similar income

46

27,863

17,325

17

161

9

84

1

0

0

Net result from trading

18

(26,612)

(16,880)

(218)

(245)

(175)

193

302

(23)

0

Profit from sale of AFS assets / receivables

2,485

37

5,916

494

504

6,154

11

3,812

124,500

0

Net banking income

53,718

67,627

80,810

94,430

121,453

244,917

264,196

280,931

391,498

278,268

Net value adjusts/revs due to impairment of receivbls

(2,470)

(6,403)

(20,218)

(24,444)

(32,143)

(53,751)

(44,587)

(31,299)

(28,104)

(21,000)

Net profit from financial activities

51,248

61,224

60,592

69,986

89,310

191,166

219,609

249,631

363,394

257,268

Personnel expenses

(13,758)

(17,701)

(21,544)

(25,176)

(27,235)

(36,319)

(37,094)

(42,553)

(48,970)

(53,076)

Other admin expenses

(6,806)

(10,111)

(12,108)

(13,902)

(21,527)

(30,927)

(39,022)

(59,319)

(58,918)

(63,568)

Net allocat to provisions for risk and charges

0

0

0

0

(17)

(1,549)

(215)

(1,613)

(242)

0

Net value adj to tangible and intangible assets

(1,538)

(2,080)

(2,371)

(2,483)

(2,948)

(3,229)

(3,004)

(3,239)

(3,643)

(3,768)

Other operating income (expenses)

(464)

966

1,406

1,436

4,252

3,656

2,987

2,036

2,122

1,912

Operating costs

(22,566)

(28,926)

(34,617)

(40,125)

(47,475)

(68,368)

(76,348)

(104,688)

(109,651)

(118,500)

Pre tax profit from continuing operations

28,682

32,298

25,975

29,861

41,835

122,798

143,261

144,943

253,743

138,768

Tax

(9,148)

(9,497)

(8,759)

(11,235)

(15,300)

(44,722)

(58,420)

(49,067)

(85,365)

(46,765)

Profit after tax (FRS3)

19,534

22,801

17,216

18,626

26,535

78,076

84,841

95,876

168,378

92,003

0

DPS €

0.30

0.30

0.37

0.20

0.25

0.37

0.57

0.65

0.70

0.80

Reported EPS c

68.2

71.5

52.7

36.1

50.6

146.0

161.2

179.8

311.7

168.1

Ratios

Cost income ratio

42%

43%

43%

43%

39%

28%

29%

37%

28%

43%

NIM (NII/due from customers)

2.83%

1.97%

1.94%

2.56%

8.95%

9.04%

8.55%

6.71%

5.61%

Impairment as % revenue

-5%

-9%

-25%

-26%

-26%

-22%

-17%

-11%

-7%

-8%

% effective tax rate

31.9%

29.4%

33.7%

37.6%

36.6%

36.4%

40.8%

33.9%

33.6%

33.7%

ROE

19.5%

17.3%

11.6%

10.9%

12.6%

30.9%

25.1%

23.8%

33.7%

15.5%

ROA (%)

2.2%

2.4%

1.7%

1.1%

1.1%

1.0%

0.6%

0.6%

1.8%

0.7%

Source: Banca IFIS, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 10: Financial summary – balance sheet (€000s)

Year end 31 December

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

Assets

Cash and Cash equivalents

15

4,614

31

67

28

30

24

100

100

Financial assets held for trading

396

325

293

188

0

10

0

0

0

Available for sale financial assets

3,134

387,705

818,507

1,685,163

1,974,591

2,529,179

243,325

2,964,850

2,229,350

Held to maturity financial assets

0

0

0

0

3,120,428

5,818,019

4,827,363

0

0

Due from banks

207,102

182,859

228,013

315,897

545,527

415,817

274,858

246,991

246,991

Due from customers

1,008,649

1,247,026

1,571,592

1,722,481

2,277,882

2,296,933

2,814,330

3,376,172

4,176,172

Property plant, equipment and investment property

34,217

34,506

34,309

39,224

39,972

40,739

50,682

52,137

52,137

Intangibles assets

3,459

3,916

3,686

6,096

5,683

6,361

6,556

7,031

7,031

O/W Goodwill

837

826

868

792

850

837

819

823

823

Current tax assets

165

69

14

1,024

951

3,940

1,972

1,037

1,037

Deferred tax assets

1,808

4,928

9,931

32,424

24,636

33,982

38,342

37,986

37,986

Other assets

100,459

107,463

135,743

111,607

120,000

192,787

51,842

125,000

125,000

Total assets

1,359,404

1,973,411

2,802,119

3,914,171

8,109,698

11,337,797

8,309,294

6,811,304

6,875,804

Liabilities

Due to banks

924,189

840,546

752,457

2,001,734

557,323

6,665,847

2,258,967

537,898

1,000,000

Due to customers

157,855

909,615

1,802,011

1,657,224

7,119,008

4,178,276

5,483,474

5,448,073

5,005,235

Outstanding securities

91,356

20,443

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Financial liabilities held for trading

2,392

0

0

600

389

130

0

0

0

Hedging derivatives

0

0

0

34

3

0

0

0

0

Current tax liabilities

25

742

960

1,275

6,395

1,022

70

8,680

8,680

deferred tax liability

2,943

3,196

3,897

9,567

13,308

16,340

14,268

15,224

15,224

other liabilities

26,481

41,975

35,121

45,599

101,141

93,844

111,059

221,798

221,798

Severance indemnities

0

0

0

1,449

1,565

1,482

1,618

1,388

1,388

Provisions for risk and charges (pensions)

1,057

1,055

1,060

407

1,549

533

1,988

2,180

1,980

Total liabilities

1,206,298

1,817,572

2,595,506

3,717,889

7,800,681

10,957,474

7,871,444

6,235,241

6,254,305

Shareholders' equity

153,106

155,839

206,613

196,282

309,017

380,323

437,850

576,063

621,499

Total liabilities

1,359,404

1,973,411

2,802,119

3,914,171

8,109,698

11,337,797

8,309,294

6,811,304

6,875,804

Number of shares (m)

33.1

32.3

51.6

52.8

53.6

52.7

52.7

52.7

52.7

NAV per share (c)

462

482

401

372

577

721

830

1,093

1,179

Equity/assets

11.26%

7.90%

7.37%

5.01%

3.81%

3.35%

5.27%

8.46%

9.04%

Equity / loans

15.18%

12.50%

13.15%

11.40%

13.57%

16.56%

15.56%

17.06%

14.88%

Source: Banca IFIS, Edison Investment Research

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