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ARR growth in a more cautious market

Checkit 11 August 2022 Update
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Checkit

ARR growth in a more cautious market

H123 trading update

Software and comp services

11 August 2022

Price

29p

Market cap

£31m

$1.21/£

Net cash (£m) at end H123

19.5

Shares in issue

108.0m

Free float

56%

Code

CKT

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(12.1)

(20.6)

(54.3)

Rel (local)

(16.1)

(23.4)

(54.58)

52-week high/low

66p

29p

Business description

Checkit optimises the performance of people, processes and physical assets with its intelligent operations software. It is headquartered in Cambridge, UK, and has operations centres in Fleet, UK, and Tampa, US.

Next events

H123 results

15 September

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Checkit is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Despite a challenging market environment, Checkit has grown annualised recurring revenue (ARR) by 48% y-o-y to £10.2m at the end of H123 and looks on track to meet our FY23 forecasts. Having made the strategic decision to focus on its platform for deskless workers, Checkit’s H123 recurring revenue grew 44% to make up 82% of total revenue. The company plans to accelerate its path to profitability; we maintain our forecasts pending further detail on these plans.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

ARR*
(£m)

PBT**
(p)

EPS**
(p)

DPS
(p)

EV/sales
(x)

01/21

13.2

5.7

(3.1)

(5.2)

0.0

0.5

01/22

13.3

8.2

(4.7)

(7.0)

0.0

0.5

01/23e

11.2

12.0

(8.8)

(8.1)

0.0

0.6

01/24e

14.0

15.9

(6.6)

(6.1)

0.0

0.5

Note: *ARR, annualised recurring revenue. **PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

H123: ARR growth of 48% y-o-y, 24% h-o-h

Checkit reported end-H123 ARR of £10.2m (+48% y-o-y, +24% h-o-h), noting that growth was resilient despite the challenging macroeconomic environment and was in line with market expectations. H123 recurring revenue of £4.4m (82% of total revenue) was up 44% from £3.1m (39%) in H122. As expected, Checkit has moved away from project work in favour of subscription contracts, resulting in a 79% decline in non-recurring revenue to £1.0m and a 31% decline in total revenue to £5.4m. Bookings were flat year-on-year, reflecting slower progression of deals through the pipeline due to the current market environment. We believe the rationale for using Checkit’s software is still intact (to improve operational efficiency, digitise compliance and support revenue generation) and Checkit’s ability to demonstrate a rapid return on investment is a key advantage in the sales process.

Looking to accelerate profitability

In light of the current market environment, the company is accelerating its plans to reach profitability and will provide further detail at its interims on 15 September. Net cash at the end of H123 was £19.5m, down from £24.2m at the end of FY22. We maintain our forecasts, noting that we continue to forecast net cash of £15.0m by the end of FY23 and £8.5m by the end of FY24.

Valuation: Significant discount to peers

On an EV/sales multiple of 0.6x for FY23e and 0.5x for FY24e, Checkit trades at a significant discount to the UK software sector (3.2x current year sales, 2.7x next year sales) and US SaaS peers (7.4x current year, 6.1x next year). If Checkit were to trade on the UK average for FY23e, it would be worth 52p per share and moving to trade in line with US SaaS peers would imply a valuation of 96p. Key triggers to help Checkit attract a multiple more in line with SaaS peers include evidence that customers are signing up to use its software, existing customers are expanding their usage and non-recurring revenues are being converted to subscription services. The company has already made a good start on all three of these metrics.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£m

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

Year end 31 January

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

1.0

9.8

13.2

13.3

11.2

14.0

Cost of Sales

(1.0)

(7.2)

(6.7)

(7.1)

(4.7)

(5.1)

Gross Profit

0.0

2.6

6.5

6.2

6.5

8.9

EBITDA

 

 

(2.3)

(4.9)

(2.5)

(4.2)

(7.8)

(5.1)

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(4.4)

(6.5)

(3.1)

(4.7)

(8.8)

(6.6)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(0.1)

(1.0)

(1.3)

(1.4)

(0.5)

(0.1)

Exceptionals

0.0

(1.7)

(0.9)

(1.0)

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.1)

0.0

Reported operating profit

(4.5)

(9.2)

(5.3)

(7.1)

(9.4)

(6.7)

Net Interest

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(4.4)

(6.4)

(3.1)

(4.7)

(8.8)

(6.6)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(4.5)

(9.1)

(5.3)

(7.1)

(9.4)

(6.7)

Reported tax

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(4.4)

(6.4)

(3.1)

(4.7)

(8.8)

(6.6)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(4.5)

(9.0)

(5.0)

(6.8)

(9.4)

(6.7)

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

8.6

89.8

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(4.4)

(6.4)

(3.1)

(4.7)

(8.8)

(6.6)

Net income (reported)

4.1

80.8

(4.4)

(6.8)

(9.4)

(6.7)

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

178

161

62

68

108

108

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

(2.5)

(4.0)

(5.2)

(7.0)

(8.1)

(6.1)

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

(2.5)

(4.0)

(5.2)

(7.0)

(8.1)

(6.1)

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

2.3

50.2

(7.2)

(10.0)

(8.7)

(6.2)

Dividend (p)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

N/A

880.0

34.7

0.8

(15.4)

24.4

Gross Margin (%)

0.0

26.5

49.2

46.6

58.1

63.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

(230.0)

(50.0)

(18.9)

(31.6)

(69.1)

(36.4)

Normalised Operating Margin

(440.0)

(66.3)

(23.5)

(35.3)

(78.0)

(47.1)

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

5.0

8.5

6.8

8.3

9.8

10.4

Intangible Assets

2.9

7.3

6.0

7.3

8.6

9.0

Tangible Assets

1.7

1.2

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Investments & other

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

19.5

19.8

17.5

28.7

18.7

12.3

Stocks

4.3

1.7

1.1

1.8

1.2

0.8

Debtors

5.1

3.4

4.4

2.6

2.5

2.9

Cash & cash equivalents

10.1

14.3

11.5

24.2

15.0

8.5

Other

0.0

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(7.9)

(5.6)

(5.9)

(5.4)

(6.2)

(7.0)

Creditors

(7.6)

(5.1)

(5.6)

(4.9)

(5.7)

(6.5)

Tax and social security

(0.3)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

(0.5)

(0.3)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(0.3)

(1.3)

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(0.3)

(1.3)

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

Net Assets

 

 

16.3

21.4

17.6

31.0

21.7

15.0

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

16.3

21.4

17.6

31.0

21.7

15.0

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(2.3)

(4.9)

(2.5)

(4.2)

(7.8)

(5.1)

Working capital

(0.5)

(1.0)

0.3

0.2

1.5

0.8

Exceptional & other

9.1

5.3

(0.7)

(1.0)

0.0

0.0

Tax

(0.5)

(0.5)

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

Net operating cash flow

 

 

5.8

(1.1)

(2.9)

(4.9)

(6.3)

(4.3)

Capex

(2.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(2.3)

(2.6)

(1.8)

Acquisitions/disposals

1.3

84.2

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

Net interest

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

0.0

(77.9)

0.5

20.2

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

(0.8)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.4)

(0.4)

Net Cash Flow

4.9

4.2

(2.8)

12.7

(9.2)

(6.5)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5.2)

(10.1)

(14.3)

(11.5)

(24.2)

(15.0)

FX

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10.1)

(14.3)

(11.5)

(24.2)

(15.0)

(8.5)

Source: Checkit, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Checkit and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Checkit. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Checkit and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Checkit. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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