A tough environment

La Doria 22 November 2016 Update

La Doria

A tough environment

Q316 results

Food & beverages

21 November 2016

Price

€7.37

Market cap

€228m

Net debt (€m) at 30 September 2016

89.2

Shares in issue

31.0m

Free float

37%

Code

LD

Primary exchange

Borsa Italia (STAR)

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.9)

(33.7)

(42.0)

Rel (local)

0.1

(32.1)

(22.7)

52-week high/low

€13.33

€7.10

Business description

La Doria is the leading manufacturer of private-label preserved vegetables and fruit for the Italian (20% revenues) and international (80% revenues) market. It enjoys leading market share positions across its product ranges in the UK, Italy, Germany, and Australia

Next events

FY16 results

March 2017

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

La Doria is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

As outlined at the time of the H1 results, La Doria’s operating environment remains tough, with significant deflation on the sales side and raw material inflation on the cost side. The effects of a difficult 2016 tomato campaign are still feeding through, and the devaluation of sterling is unhelpful as it may cause a loss of competitiveness in the vegetable line vis-à-vis British domestic producers. Management expects a recovery from mid-2017, when the new tomato campaign will start to come through.

Year
end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

748.3

61.0

144.6

28.0

5.1

3.8

12/16e

654.8

43.1

97.3

21.0

7.6

2.8

12/17e

661.3

35.2

79.5

17.0

9.3

2.3

12/18e

701.0

45.3

102.2

24.0

7.2

3.3

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Nine-month results

In Q3, La Doria witnessed a continuation of the trends seen in H1, specifically a deflationary trading environment and weakening of sterling. In addition, cost inflation started to feature. As outlined in the recent three-year business plan, management expects 2016 to be weaker than 2015, followed by a further weakening in 2017 before the recovery starts to come through. This should commence in H217 following a better 2017 tomato campaign over the summer (a drop in southern Italian tomato production in 2016 bodes well for 2017 pricing), and should come through fully in the 2018 numbers.

Mitigating the downturn

Despite the tough environment, La Doria is continuing to implement its strategy and improve efficiencies to contain costs. La Doria’s strategy is to grow the higher added-value product categories such as ready-made sauces and soups to reduce the overall exposure of the group to the volatility in the tomato-based product line. Management remains committed to this objective, which is sensible in our view, and has indeed insulated the company from a more significant downturn: the profit contribution from the tomato line has steadily reduced over the years as management has expanded the other parts of the business.

Valuation: Significant potential

Our forecasts remain unchanged and our DCF model points to a fair value of €10.99 per share (€10.91 previously), or 49% upside from the current share price. We calculate that La Doria now trades on 9.3x 2017e P/E and 7.2x 2017e EV/EBITDA, at c 44% and c 14% respective discounts to its private-label peer group.

Financial results and forecasts

Business update

During the first nine months of 2016, La Doria has experienced the effects of the 2015 tomato campaign – which affected H1 results and caused a significant contraction in finished product sales prices, only partly offset by lower costs – in addition to the initial effects of the 2016 campaign, which witnessed a further reduction in selling prices. In the ready-made sauces segment costs remained stable, but pricing was also down. LDH, the UK subsidiary, was affected by deflation in selling prices, although effective cost control and improved efficiency resulted in stable margins. Furthermore, group results were affected by sterling devaluation relating to the consolidation of LDH.

Given that the majority of the negotiations for the red line occur during Q3, there is good visibility on the business for the next 12 months. For the fruit and vegetables/pulses lines, the contracts are mainly negotiated during Q4 and we therefore now also have good visibility for the next 12 months: deflation remains a feature across the board, and harvests have tended to be lower, hence costs have been higher.

Sterling devaluation

It is still early days to judge the long-term impact of Brexit on consumption patterns. However, the immediate effect was the significant devaluation of sterling. As a reminder, La Doria derives c 50% of its revenue from the UK. Of course, the competition will also encounter higher raw material costs as a function of their euro denomination, but UK-based competitors in the vegetable category will have the advantage of having some sterling-denominated costs to mitigate the impact, while LDH (La Doria) Ltd (LDH) is a trading company and the majority of costs are euro-denominated. For the red line all producers face the same headwinds so there is no loss of competitiveness. As a reminder, La Doria now consolidates 100% of its minorities and treats as debt the value of the put options that exist against it.

9M16 results

Consolidated revenues were down 13% to €491.6m given the lower selling prices across the board and the deflationary economic environment. EBITDA was down 24% to €44.9m, with the EBITDA margin down 150bp to 9.0%. EBIT was down 32% to €32.6m, with the EBIT margin down 200bp to 6.6%. Net debt was €89.2m vs €130m at the end of FY15 and €81.9m at the end of H116.

Forecasts

We leave our forecasts unchanged. We note 2017 is expected to be a trough year in respect of margins, implying some recovery in the 2017 contract negotiation, which should mainly affect 2018 results.

Valuation

La Doria’s share price has significantly underperformed over the last three and six months, mostly due to the devaluation of sterling following the Brexit vote, but also due to the weak macroeconomic environment and the tough 2016 tomato campaign. Over the past three months, La Doria is down 35% compared to a 1.1% decline in the FTSE Italia index. Despite this, on 2017 estimates, La Doria trades on 9.3x P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA, with a 2.3% dividend yield. This compares to the peer group of private-label and small-cap food manufacturers on 16.6x and 8.4x, or a discount of c 44% and c 14% respectively, which we believe is unwarranted.

Exhibit 1: Benchmark valuation of La Doria relative to peers

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

Market cap (m)

2016e

2017e

2016e

2017e

2016e

2017e

Greencore

£1,326.7

14.9

13.7

10.8

9.6

2.3

2.6

Ebro Foods

€2,910.4

17.1

16.0

9.7

9.0

3.4

3.6

Parmalat

€4,567.3

30.0

24.6

9.4

8.3

0.8

0.8

Bonduelle

€721.6

12.5

10.6

6.6

5.8

2.0

2.1

Valsoia

€177.1

19.6

18.3

10.4

9.5

1.5

1.6

Peer group average

18.8

16.6

9.4

8.4

2.0

2.2

La Doria

€ 228.5

7.6

9.3

6.3

7.2

2.8%

2.3%

Premium/(discount) to peer group

(59.8%)

(44.3%)

(32.8%)

(14.2%)

42.2%

7.2%

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates and Bloomberg consensus. Note: Prices at 16 November 2016.

Our primary valuation methodology is DCF analysis and we calculate a fair value of €10.99/share (from €10.91), or 49% upside from the current level. This is based on our assumptions of a 1.0% terminal growth rate and a 7.5% terminal EBIT margin. Our WACC of 6.3% is based on an equity risk premium of 4%, a borrowing spread of 5% and beta of 0.8.Our fair value has moved up slightly due to the reduction in share price since our last note. This has caused the debt/equity split to change, slightly reducing WACC. Below, we show a sensitivity analysis of these assumptions and note that based on our model the current share price is discounting a terminal EBIT margin of 6.5% (which compares to La Doria’s reported EBIT margin of 8.1% in 2015, and a company target of 5.6% EBIT margin at the trough in 2017e) and a terminal growth rate of c -1%.

Exhibit 2: DCF sensitivity to terminal growth rate and EBIT margin (€ per share)

Terminal growth

EBIT margin

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

-2.0%

6.2

6.8

7.3

7.9

8.4

9.0

-1.0%

6.9

7.6

8.2

8.8

9.5

10.1

0.0%

7.9

8.6

9.4

10.1

10.9

11.6

1.0%

9.2

10.1

11.0

11.9

12.8

13.7

2.0%

11.1

12.2

13.3

14.5

15.6

16.7

3.0%

14.2

15.6

17.1

18.6

20.1

21.5

4.0%

19.9

22.0

24.1

26.3

28.4

30.5

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates

Key sensitivities

La Doria’s key sensitivities include:

input cost inflation on the agricultural commodities it processes to manufacture its products;

the supply/demand balance affecting the achievability of finished goods price inflation;

consumer consumption patterns and competitive pressures, particularly in Europe with a subdued economic environment, although La Doria and private label (PL) in general should benefit from any consumer down trading; and

foreign exchange, specifically euro/sterling due to the consolidation of its trading subsidiary, LDH.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

€ms

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

604.4

631.4

748.3

654.8

661.3

701.0

Cost of Sales

(521.2)

(527.6)

(616.9)

(550.2)

(564.3)

(591.2)

Gross Profit

83.2

103.8

131.5

104.5

97.0

109.8

EBITDA

 

 

43.4

60.0

77.6

58.1

50.7

61.5

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

31.3

48.1

61.0

43.1

61.0

43.1

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

FX Gain/(loss)

2.5

0.3

3.6

3.3

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

33.8

48.4

64.6

46.4

38.2

49.0

Net Interest

(4.7)

(4.1)

(3.6)

(3.3)

(3.0)

(3.7)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

26.6

44.0

57.4

39.8

35.2

45.3

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

29.2

44.3

61.0

43.1

35.2

45.3

Tax

(7.9)

(14.3)

(16.1)

(12.9)

(10.6)

(13.6)

Profit After Tax (norm)

19.7

29.9

44.8

30.2

24.7

31.7

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

21.2

29.9

44.8

30.2

24.7

31.7

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

29.5

30.6

31.0

31.0

31.0

31.0

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

45.1

80.5

144.6

97.3

79.5

102.2

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

52.5

81.5

144.6

97.3

79.5

102.2

Dividend per share (c)

12.0

22.0

28.0

21.0

17.0

24.0

Gross Margin (%)

13.8

16.4

17.6

16.0

14.7

15.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

7.2

9.5

10.4

8.9

7.7

8.8

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

5.2

7.6

8.1

8.1

6.6

5.8

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

114.8

179.6

177.6

173.6

171.6

169.6

Intangible Assets

4.0

10.6

10.6

9.9

9.2

8.5

Tangible Assets

98.9

146.6

143.3

140.0

138.7

137.4

Investments

11.9

22.3

23.7

23.7

23.7

23.7

Current Assets

 

 

336.1

374.0

398.8

413.3

441.7

477.9

Stocks

194.1

212.9

199.8

209.1

217.3

227.6

Debtors

89.0

100.3

107.7

98.2

102.5

108.7

Cash

27.9

41.1

77.9

92.7

108.6

128.3

Other

25.1

19.6

13.3

13.3

13.3

13.3

Current Liabilities

 

 

(214.8)

(229.1)

(220.7)

(208.6)

(216.5)

(226.9)

Creditors

(129.2)

(143.7)

(129.3)

(117.2)

(125.1)

(135.6)

Short term borrowings

(85.7)

(85.4)

(91.4)

(91.4)

(91.4)

(91.4)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(82.8)

(136.6)

(157.3)

(147.2)

(131.7)

(131.7)

Long term borrowings

(50.7)

(93.9)

(116.6)

(116.6)

(116.6)

(116.6)

Other long term liabilities

(32.1)

(42.6)

(40.7)

(30.5)

(15.1)

(15.1)

Net Assets

 

 

153.3

187.9

198.4

231.2

265.1

288.9

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

23.3

53.7

58.2

36.6

35.6

41.9

Net Interest

(4.7)

(4.1)

(3.6)

(3.3)

(3.0)

(3.7)

Tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Capex

(9.1)

(17.2)

(8.4)

(11.0)

(10.5)

(10.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

(64.8)

(4.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Financing

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(4.4)

(6.3)

(9.3)

(7.5)

(6.2)

(7.9)

Other

2.8

8.6

(23.3)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

8.0

(30.2)

8.7

14.7

15.9

19.8

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

118.0

108.5

138.2

130.1

115.3

99.4

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

1.5

0.5

(0.6)

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

108.5

138.2

130.1

115.3

99.4

79.7

Source: Edison Investment Research, Company data

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by La Doria and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by La Doria and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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