Sylvania’s production in Q126 continued to accelerate, reaching a record high of 24,522oz for 4E platinum group metals (PGMs) and 31,234oz for 6E. Net profit continued to recover thanks to record production, a rising PGM basket price and healthy unit cost control. We lift our FY26 4E forecast to 92,000oz, ahead of company guidance, and as a result upgrade our FY26 EPS by 7.3% to 23.18 US cents. We also introduce small earnings upgrades for FY27 and FY28 and increase our valuation by 2% to 156p/share.

Sylvania’s strong FY25 production and a higher platinum group metals (PGM) basket price resulted in 2.9x higher EPS of 7.7 US cents versus our forecast of 5.1 US cents. Our outlook for the Sylvania Dump Operations (SDO) is largely unchanged, except for a slight (3.3%) increase in cost forecasts due to a weaker dollar. The outlook for the Thaba joint venture (JV) has improved, thanks to attractive chrome prices, despite a slower ramp-up to steady-state production. We reduce our FY26 EPS by 6% to 21.6 US cents to allow for a slower ramp-up and a weaker dollar, with longer-term forecasts benefiting from a higher chrome price forecast. Our valuation is unchanged at 152.9p/share, with a 3.2% lower SDO valuation (weaker dollar) offset by a higher JV valuation (on higher chrome forecasts).

Sylvania’s Q425 results included a fourth straight quarterly production improvement, a 13.5% increase in the platinum group metals (PGM) basket price and healthy cost control. A strong PGM recovery, driven by improved fundamentals, has resulted in a large upgrade to our forecasts. Our higher PGM expectations and more optimistic production outlook, especially from FY27, have lifted our FY26e EPS by 142% to 22.9 US cents and FY27e EPS by 16.6% to 27.8 US cents. We now forecast dividends of 7p/share for FY26 (up from 3.5p) and 9p/share for FY27. There is also strong potential for windfall dividends from FY27, supported by our forecast recovery in cash balances. Our FY25 forecasts are largely unchanged. We increase our valuation for Sylvania by 66% from 92.1p/share to 152.9p/share.