Sylvania’s strong FY25 production and a higher platinum group metals (PGM) basket price resulted in 2.9x higher EPS of 7.7 US cents versus our forecast of 5.1 US cents. Our outlook for the Sylvania Dump Operations (SDO) is largely unchanged, except for a slight (3.3%) increase in cost forecasts due to a weaker dollar. The outlook for the Thaba joint venture (JV) has improved, thanks to attractive chrome prices, despite a slower ramp-up to steady-state production. We reduce our FY26 EPS by 6% to 21.6 US cents to allow for a slower ramp-up and a weaker dollar, with longer-term forecasts benefiting from a higher chrome price forecast. Our valuation is unchanged at 152.9p/share, with a 3.2% lower SDO valuation (weaker dollar) offset by a higher JV valuation (on higher chrome forecasts).

Sylvania’s Q425 results included a fourth straight quarterly production improvement, a 13.5% increase in the platinum group metals (PGM) basket price and healthy cost control. A strong PGM recovery, driven by improved fundamentals, has resulted in a large upgrade to our forecasts. Our higher PGM expectations and more optimistic production outlook, especially from FY27, have lifted our FY26e EPS by 142% to 22.9 US cents and FY27e EPS by 16.6% to 27.8 US cents. We now forecast dividends of 7p/share for FY26 (up from 3.5p) and 9p/share for FY27. There is also strong potential for windfall dividends from FY27, supported by our forecast recovery in cash balances. Our FY25 forecasts are largely unchanged. We increase our valuation for Sylvania by 66% from 92.1p/share to 152.9p/share.

Sylvania Platinum has increased its full-year 4E platinum group metals (PGM) guidance again, to 78,000–80,000oz. Positive developments at Millsell (a new column flotation cell), Lesedi (initiatives to improve feed source and profitability) and Lannex (optimisation efforts) are likely behind management’s increased confidence. Q325 results were healthy (largely in line, but for higher depreciation and royalties tax and lower finance income) and support our forecasts, which remain unchanged. The earnings outlook for FY26 remains strong. Due to the depreciation of the dollar to sterling, we have reduced our valuation by 7.5% from 99.6p/share to 92.1p/share, which is almost twice the current share price.