Edison Exhibits – South-East Asian fuels

Published on 27-11-2019 09:37:31

Exhibit 1: South-East Asia GDP evolution since 2000

Source: World Bank, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 5: 2019–2021 average real GDP growth rates

Source: World Bank, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 3: South-East Asia primary energy
consumption since 2000

Source: World Bank, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 7: South East Asia hydrocarbon production since 2000

Source: BP Statistical Review 2019, Edison Investment Research

Since 2000, primary energy consumption in South-East Asia more than doubled, while its gross domestic product (GDP) grew by almost 400% over the same period as can be seen in Exhibit 1. Rising incomes, urbanisation, expanded access to energy and growing populations all contributed to strong energy demand growth. Fossil fuels dominate the primary energy mix, accounting for more than 50% of the total in 2018. Of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members, Indonesia has the highest energy demand, accounting for c 30% of the region’s total, followed by Thailand with c 20%. Growth in the region is projected to slow from 6.3% in 2018 to 5.9% in 2019–2020 and to ease further to 5.8% in 2021. This is expected to be the first time in the last 20 years that South-East Asia growth will drop below 6.0%. Despite this, the region continues to lead economic growth as shown in Exhibit 2, resulting in increasing energy demand in SouthEast Asia.

South-East Asia is a mature oil and gas province where 68% of current production is from mid-life and mature fields. Over the last 20 years production has been relatively steady at c 5mmboed (Exhibit 4); however, output is forecast to decline by 15% by 2025. Natural gas supply will decline
after 2020 while demand for natural gas is forecast to grow at c 2.3% per year to 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the region as a whole will become a net importer of gas in the mid-2020s, although Indonesia will become a net importer in the mid-2030s.

Since 2000, primary energy consumption in South-East Asia more than doubled, while its gross domestic product (GDP) grew by almost 400% over the same period as can be seen in Exhibit 1. Rising incomes, urbanisation, expanded access to energy and growing populations all contributed to strong energy demand growth. Fossil fuels dominate the primary energy mix, accounting for more than 50% of the total in 2018. Of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members, Indonesia has the highest energy demand, accounting for c 30% of the region’s total, followed by Thailand with c 20%. Growth in the region is projected to slow from 6.3% in 2018 to 5.9% in 2019–2020 and to ease further to 5.8% in 2021. This is expected to be the first time in the last 20 years that South-East Asia growth will drop below 6.0%. Despite this, the region continues to lead economic growth as shown in Exhibit 2, resulting in increasing energy demand in SouthEast Asia.

South-East Asia is a mature oil and gas province where 68% of current production is from mid-life and mature fields. Over the last 20 years production has been relatively steady at c 5mmboed (Exhibit 4); however, output is forecast to decline by 15% by 2025. Natural gas supply will decline
after 2020 while demand for natural gas is forecast to grow at c 2.3% per year to 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the region as a whole will become a net importer of gas in the mid-2020s, although Indonesia will become a net importer in the mid-2030s.

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