Telford-homes

Telford Homes

LN: TEF

£214.8m market cap

288p last close

Listed on AIM in 2001, Telford Homes is a London-focused residential property developer. Its portfolio includes open market sales (in multi-occupancy, including mixed-use, developments), the build-to-rent subsector (alongside investment partners) and affordable homes delivered to housing associations.

Investment summary

Telford Homes represents a pure play on London’s clear requirement for the delivery of more good-quality, new build homes. Management is continuing to orient development activities towards the more robust build to rent (BTR) subsector – including the recent announcements of two strategic partnerships – although there will be a near-term dip in earnings as the pipeline transitions, factoring in isolated delays to other projects and current market conditions. Regaining and sustaining historic profit levels would warrant a share price significantly ahead of the present valuation. FY19 results are scheduled for 29 May.

Y/E Mar
Revenue (£m)
EBITDA (£m)
PBT (£m)
EPS (p)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2017A 291.9 39.8 34.1 36.6 7.7 7.8
2018A 316.2 53.8 46.0 49.4 5.7 N/A
2019E 349.2 48.8 40.3 41.3 6.8 29.3
2020E 385.9 33.3 25.0 26.4 10.7 8.2
Last updated on 17/04/2019
Industry outlook

Citing a chronic housing shortage, the Mayor of London’s office has a clear agenda to raise new home building rates to c 65,000 per year over the next 10 years compared to a recent average of less than a third of that level. Medium- and long-term population and household growth expectations further underpin this demand. The tenure mix is expected to continue to move towards a higher proportion of private rental homes.

Last updated on 17/04/2019
Sector
Industrials
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (£m) 125.1
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 50
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (3.6) (15.4) (35.4)
Relative* (7.2) (22.5) (35.6)
52-week high/low 471.5p/270.0p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Andrew Wiseman Chairman
Jonathan Di Stefano CEO
Katie Rogers CFO