Hellenic Petroleum

ASE: ELPE

€2399.2m market cap

€7.85 last close

Hellenic Petroleum operates three refineries in Greece with a total capacity of 341kbd, and has sizeable marketing (domestic and international) and petrochemicals divisions.

Investment summary

We see several moving parts affecting benchmark margins in 2019, including highly anticipated changes to marine fuel standards (IMO 2020), crude price volatility, Iranian crude sanctions and associated waivers, as well as c 2mmbd of new global refining capacity additions. ELPE’s bias towards middle-distillate yield ensures that it is well placed to take advantage of increased demand for low sulphur shipping fuels and to remain competitive versus emerging competition. Edison’s blended valuation stands at €8.9/share.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2016A 6680.0 731.0 361.0 0.82 957.3 2.8
2017A 7995.0 833.0 502.0 1.20 654.2 5.2
2018E 9690.0 746.0 435.0 1.03 762.1 N/A
2019E 9826.0 704.0 389.0 0.95 826.3 5.4
Last updated on 21/02/2019
Industry outlook

European refining will likely face continued challenges in the coming years as demand falls and refinery systems elsewhere (Asia/US) hold structural advantages. To offset this, changing regulations should put complex, middle distillate-orientated refineries such as ELPE’s in a strong position.

Last updated on 21/02/2019
Sector
Oil & gas
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (€m) 1761
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 86
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 2.6 12.3 (6.0)
Relative* (6.2) (0.5) 16.4
52-week high/low €8.6/€6.7
*% relative to local index
Key management
George Grigoriou Investor Relations Officer
Vasilis Molfetas IR department
Vasilis Tsaitas Investor Relations Officer

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