Hellenic Petroleum

ASE: ELPE

€1699.3m market cap

€5.56 last close

Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) operates three refineries in Greece with a total capacity of 341kbd, and has sizeable marketing (domestic and international) and petrochemicals divisions.

Investment summary

Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) reported that Q120 production was 8% higher than Q119 while adjusted EBITDA increased 4% to €128m. Lower oil prices in the quarter led to improving margins; however, as the COVID-19 pandemic started to affect global demand for oil products, margins began to come under pressure. We expect this pressure will continue for the next three to six months as economies around the world slowly recover and lockdown measures begin to ease. Hellenic’s high complexity index and large storage capacity allow for flexibility in times of uncertainty and given the company’s healthy balance sheet, we expect it to weather this period. Our updated valuation stands at €7.00/share.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2018A 9769.0 730.0 388.0 95.2 5.8 3.4
2019A 8857.0 570.0 205.0 54.8 10.1 3.5
2020E 8318.0 484.0 181.0 44.4 12.5 15.6
2021E 8393.0 608.0 275.0 67.4 8.2 2.8
Industry outlook

European refining will likely face continued challenges in the coming years as demand falls and refinery systems elsewhere (Asia/US) hold structural advantages. To offset this, changing regulations should put complex, middle distillate-orientated refineries such as ELPE’s in a strong position.

Last updated on 13/07/2020
Sector
Oil & gas
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (€m) 1984
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 114
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (9.5) (6.7) (39.6)
Relative* (7.1) (10.2) (17.8)
52-week high/low €9.6/€4.6
*% relative to local index
Key management
George Grigoriou Investor Relations Officer
Vasilis Molfetas IR department
Vasilis Tsaitas Investor Relations Officer

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