Ultra Electronics — Poised for the Trump effect

Ultra Electronics — Poised for the Trump effect

Ultra’s trading statement covering the period to 27 April 2017 was released ahead of today’s AGM. It indicates that trading is in line with management expectations. The US budgetary process is in full swing, with the Continuing Resolution (CR) due to expire shortly, which has been a constraint on US defence spending during the period. The already indicated bias of trading towards H217 is still expected to deliver unchanged prospects for modest growth for the year as a whole. Ultra’s shares have continued to perform well year to date (+8.2%), closing in on our fair value of 2,257p. The positive re-rating appears justified by the improving defence outlook globally.

Andy Chambers

Written by

Andy Chambers

Director, Industrials

Ultra Electronics

Poised for the Trump effect

AGM trading update

Aerospace & defence

28 April 2017

Price

2,095p

Market cap

£1,479m

US$1.29/£

Net debt (£m) at 31 December 2017

256.7

Shares in issue

70.6

Free float

99%

Code

ULE

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Ultra Electronics is a global aerospace and defence electronics company, with operations across three divisions: Aerospace & Infrastructure (26% of 2016 sales); Communications & Security (33%); and Maritime & Land (41%).

Analysts

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3681 2525

Alexandra West

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Ultra Electronics is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Ultra’s trading statement covering the period to 27 April 2017 was released ahead of today’s AGM. It indicates that trading is in line with management expectations. The US budgetary process is in full swing, with the Continuing Resolution (CR) due to expire shortly, which has been a constraint on US defence spending during the period. The already indicated bias of trading towards H217 is still expected to deliver unchanged prospects for modest growth for the year as a whole. Ultra’s shares have continued to perform well year to date (+8.2%), closing in on our fair value of 2,257p. The positive re-rating appears justified by the improving defence outlook globally.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

726.3

112.4

123.9

46.1

16.9

2.2

12/16

785.8

120.1

134.6

47.8

15.6

2.3

12/17e

812.8

121.4

134.7

49.5

15.6

2.4

12/18e

852.8

130.2

144.5

52.0

14.5

2.5

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Ultra generates around half of its revenues in North America, primarily from US defence and security markets. As a reminder, for defence suppliers a CR in the US means that no new contracts can be initiated. Existing contracts can still be funded or renewed, although even here some constraint may be experienced due to a more cautious stance by buyers. It is operated for prescribed periods where a budget settlement has not been reached, and it can be extended. US defence investment spending (outlay) was down 0.5% in Q117. Congress is trying to agree a budget settlement at present, but any improvement will not likely manifest itself until H217. Hence, the increased weighting of trading expectations for Ultra to the second half. We expect greater clarity by the interim results on 7 August 2017.

The Fiscal Year 2018 Presidential Budget Request (PBR) for Defense is also expected in May. We expect this should confirm an improving outlook for US defence spending in the medium term, consistent with the global trend for increased expenditure. In addition, a more aligned Congress may avoid the CR issue from October, assuming budgets for FY18 are agreed more rapidly.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Ultra Electronics and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: TMT

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